Update on Cryptoassets as of August 16th, 2020 by, Van K. Tharp, PhD

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Market Summary

The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index closed at 572.6 last Friday after closing at 378.28 last month. Its low was 217.82 in early March. The market grew a lot last month and is close to the 2019 highs but this time all cryptos are really moving. Since the BTC halving in early May 2020, mining a single BTC now costs between $12,000 to $14,000 which means the current market price is about to break even for the miners. This is why we are only guaranteeing GBTC on the downside at 12.50 or less for Super Trader members who took advantage of the offer.

The table below tracks the price of five major cryptoassets across three generations of the technology now along with Bloomberg’s index:

  • Bitcoin, a 1st generation crypto asset,
  • ETH and NEO, 2nd generation cryptos, and
  • Iota, a 3rd generation crypto
  • Holo (HOT) – I replaced Skycoin because it is pretty dead and there probably won’t ever be a market in it for US Investors.
  • BGCI Index – I’ve also started including BGCI prices in the table.

Date of the All-Time High Closes
*Dec 16, 2017 ** Jan 13, 2018 ***Jan 15, 2018 **** Dec 8, 2017 ***** May 29, 2019 # Jan 5, 2017

Notice the HUGE changes in almost every column. I’ve been talking about a major move for about 20 months and now it is starting to happen. The BCG index is actually the highest that it has been since we’ve been tracking it. ETH almost doubled last month.

The following table tracks the amount of money in stable coins in the top 100 or which have a market cap of over $100 million. The percentage of the total crypto market cap indicates one measure of health for the crypto market.

We have had a market cap recovery of about 30%. However, we have also had the largest weekly increase in the US Stock market last week because of Fed Repurchasing.

* Bitcoin was as high as 90% of the market cap of all cryptos at the beginning of 2017 to as low as 32% at the top of the market. Part of the difference is that there are now nearly 2000 cryptocurrencies. So the number keeps going up even though the market cap goes down.

** This was the peak of the crypto market in terms of market cap. Data via Tama Churchouse, Asia West Investor email on 4/11/18

Some interesting changes occurred this month. Three months ago,133 coins had a market cap above $25 million and this month there are 320. My conclusion is something is happening now with altcoins. Last month Coin Market Cap claimed they were 5,735 coins and now they list 6,460. There are some weird coins toward the bottom of the list like 3X Bitcoin or 3X Litecoin. Be very careful with anything like that or better yet, just keep away. I only trust what’s listed in Coin Market Cap’s top 200 list — and that doesn’t mean I’d come close in investing in any of them.

This month we are following 115 cryptos in our crypto market model. Those include most of the top 75 cryptoassets in terms of market cap but there are still some for which we cannot get data.

The six tables below show the Market SQN® scores of our crypto market model over the last 6 months. In March, we had zero very bullish cryptos and six cryptos ranked with bullish scores. Notice the change in the last two months. We now have 28 strong bull and another 53 that are bullish.

Last month I said the strong altcoins were starting to move and this month confirms it. It’s time to have a strong position in this market.

The chart above shows the 15 top and bottom cryptoassets. We now have 64 cryptos with Market SQN® scores above 1.0 and seven with a score above 2.0. Right now BTC is the first coin with a yellow Market SQN score (not shown).

Chainlink moved from 12th in market cap to 5th over the last month. The unofficial leader in our trading contest fully invested in Chainlink and his $50,000 is now worth over $250,000.

Update for Super Trader Crypto System

The system entered a position in February and exited shortly afterward. We got another trade on May 6 – just five days before the halving. The position hadn’t performed well compared with most of the major altcoins but now it’s up 29%. Using this system, 12 trades over eight years would have turned $10K into $2.372M. You can see the results below –

This system is one of the five exclusive systems I teach Super Trader students, but since the other systems perform better so I’m willing to show you this system and I will continue to report its performance in this update.

In the latest news, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) now says that banks can store and work with cryptos which is a huge boost overall for cryptos. The OCC is a major US agency that regulates all banks.

I have a way of looking at the top-performing altcoins. I use cointrackinginfo.io to keep track of the taxes on my positions. They list about 100 coins that I either own or used to own. And I can get a 30-day trend from that list. I have a lot of coins that were airdropped into my account so I’m only including those for which the value of the coins I own is at least $25. Based on that information, the top 10 coins are as follows. I’ve crossed out the value of the coins that I own.

The following chart show BTC prices for the last year and the second chart tracks the directional component of the market type for BTC –

TRADING GENIUS CONTEST:

Those of you who took the Trading Genius II workshop have the bonus gift of a trading contest and another workshop day. The contest started on April 27 and with 22 entries so far, the unofficial leader is up 412.6%. The top 4 leaders all have crypto positions. After reaching a 12 month high in BTC, RJ finally entered positions in the contest a week ago – all cryptos – and he’s up over 10% in one week. That’s what’s going on in the crypto market. The top 3 people (and I’m officially #1) are all up over 100%.

If you participated in the Trading Genius II workshop, I encourage you to submit your entry (it’s hypothetical or paper trading) because you will learn a lot about yourself and your beliefs. Notice that the S&P 500 is up 19.88% since the contest started and the index would be in eighth place in the contest. Seven traders are ahead of it.

Until September 15th, 2020,

This is Van Tharp.

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