D.R. Barton

About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured analyst on Fox Business Networks’ Varney & Co. TV show (catch him Tuesdays at 9:30 a.m. EST), on Bloomberg Radio Taking Stock and MarketWatch’s Money Life Show. He is also a regular guest analyst on CNBC World, CNBC’s Closing Bell, Fox Business Network’s Cavuto Coast to Coast and Making Money with Charles Payne and the China Global Television Network. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com, MarketWatch.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at “drbarton” at “vantharp.com.”

Forecast: “Money Storm” Continues Its Downpour By, D.R. Barton, Jr.

Almost every week someone asks me whether or not this is the market top and every time I have a similar answer – until the money stops pouring in, none of the “lesser” issues matter very much. Technicals, sentiment, geopolitical issues, Covid news – all of that has had fleeting effects on the equity markets. Why? The power of using the narrative to inform our investing choices is as evident as ever. Today, we’re going to touch on the current narrative briefly and review a few charts that show what …

Forecast: “Money Storm” Continues Its Downpour By, D.R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Sector Bubble Watch Part II: Stock Watch + Other Risk Assets By, D.R. Barton, Jr.

Earlier this month, we talked about recent and potential future financial bubbles. There has been, what I’ve called, a “money storm” in the U.S. (and similarly in many other countries) coming from continued Federal Reserve monetary stimulus and from fiscal stimulus delivered by congress. Here’s a picture of the ongoing massive expansion of the Fed’s monetary injection: Note that the current amount of Fed Total Assets is $8.24 trillion—an incredible 9x times bigger than September 2008. We know that congress has provided three rounds of stimulus to combat the economic …

Sector Bubble Watch Part II: Stock Watch + Other Risk Assets By, D.R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Current and Coming Bursting Bubbles By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Greetings from Old Orchard Beach in Maine. I’m up in the lovely Pine Tree State with my wife visiting my brother-in-law and we decided to go to spend a few days in the lovely “old school” beach community and, of course, to eat lobster. Lobster rolls, whole lobsters, lobster salad—I’m not picky… I’ve shared before how expensive traveling has become in this post-COVID lockdown period, where pent-up demand has exploded for anything travel-related. Maine is no exception. Several months ago, I looked up prices to rent a car in anticipation …

Current and Coming Bursting Bubbles By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

A New Class of Risk On Assets By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Back in 2019, I wrote of series of articles about bitcoin and declared that traders and investors were treating it as its own asset class. That part has not changed. When we look at bitcoin action today, it does not directly correlate for any length of time with any other asset class. But what is interesting (and tradeable) is the cycle that crypto has with the S&P 500—from negatively correlated (moving in opposite directions), to uncorrelated (price moves having no relationship to each other), to moderately correlated (prices moving together …

A New Class of Risk On Assets By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Inflation Concerns What Are Traders and Investors to Do? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

A month ago, I wrote about inflation concerns that had pushed the markets down to key support levels in an article entitled “Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line?” Here is the original “hold the line” chart: And now we have the answer to that question: The line held, coinciding directly with the reduction in inflation fears. Today I’m going to run you through a “chart-heavy” look at some inflationary forces and make the case that market participants are betting, for the near to intermediate-term, that …

Inflation Concerns What Are Traders and Investors to Do? By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Many folks in the U.S. are returning to summer travel schedules. And like so, so many other things – the cost of travel has skyrocketed. In late May of 2019 (before COVID), my wife and I spent a week on the Gulf Coast of Florida for a little R&R. We rented a car at the Tampa airport, for a week, at a total cost of $150.82 (no additional insurances purchased). Earlier this week, I made the exact same reservation. I rented the same car class, at the same airport, on …

Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line? By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

What to Do With a Slow, Boring Market? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

The S&P 500 has closed within 5% of its record high for 119 trading days. That's the sixth-longest streak since 1998, and it ranks up there with the "boring" periods of the last cycle (2013, 2014, 2017). – Callie Cox via Twitter Callie Cox’s post is telling – we have spent many months at the top of the chart yet gained very little ground overall. After a moderate jump up over the last month, the last two and a half weeks have seen equity markets stuck in a range (blue …

What to Do With a Slow, Boring Market? By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Markets Still Don’t Flop from the Top by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

An object in motion tends to remain in motion until acted on by an outside force.--Simplified version of Newton’s First Law My Grandma Seymour was a gracious woman. A Godly and wise woman. A woman of exceptional beauty. People often mistook her as my Mom’s sister – much to Mom’s chagrin. Above all, she was the quintessential southern matriarch. She ruled our family not so much from a position of authority (which she had) but rather from a position of repeated wisdom and gentleness - thus garnering and maintaining everyone’s …

Markets Still Don’t Flop from the Top by, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

An Auspicious Anniversary – What’s Next? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

During the past few weeks, the media has been reporting loads of “How life has changed” reports commemorating the first anniversary of the initial pandemic lockdowns. Yesterday marked another key milestone in the markets: the one-year anniversary of the low tick in the fastest 30%+ crash in U.S. market history. So in a way, today marks the first anniversary of the start of the fastest recovery to a bull market in history. And it is a bull that rages on with the S&P 500 sitting a mere 1.1% below all-times …

An Auspicious Anniversary – What’s Next? By, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

The Nasdaq Trails – Now What? by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

    This week, let’s look at something short and sweet. The Nasdaq has been the go-to for overachievement in recent decades. Yes, it has been an up and down ride, especially if you go all the back to the Dot.com bubble, but the last 12 years have been largely a one-way ride: The line presented in this chart illustrates the price of the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) divided by the price of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). If the line is heading up, the QQQ is outperforming; if it’s going …

The Nasdaq Trails – Now What? by, D. R. Barton, Jr. Read More »

Scroll to Top