D.R. Barton

About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured analyst on Fox Business Networks’ Varney & Co. TV show (catch him Tuesdays at 9:30 a.m. EST), on Bloomberg Radio Taking Stock and MarketWatch’s Money Life Show. He is also a regular guest analyst on CNBC World, CNBC’s Closing Bell, Fox Business Network’s Cavuto Coast to Coast and Making Money with Charles Payne and the China Global Television Network. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com, MarketWatch.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at “drbarton” at “vantharp.com.”

Inflation Concerns What Are Traders and Investors to Do? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

A month ago, I wrote about inflation concerns that had pushed the markets down to key support levels in an article entitled “Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line?” Here is the original “hold the line” chart: And now we have the answer to that question: The line held, coinciding directly with the reduction in inflation fears. Today I’m going to run you through a “chart-heavy” look at some inflationary forces and make the case that market participants are betting, for the near to intermediate-term, that …

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Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Many folks in the U.S. are returning to summer travel schedules. And like so, so many other things – the cost of travel has skyrocketed. In late May of 2019 (before COVID), my wife and I spent a week on the Gulf Coast of Florida for a little R&R. We rented a car at the Tampa airport, for a week, at a total cost of $150.82 (no additional insurances purchased). Earlier this week, I made the exact same reservation. I rented the same car class, at the same airport, on …

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What to Do With a Slow, Boring Market? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

The S&P 500 has closed within 5% of its record high for 119 trading days. That's the sixth-longest streak since 1998, and it ranks up there with the "boring" periods of the last cycle (2013, 2014, 2017). – Callie Cox via Twitter Callie Cox’s post is telling – we have spent many months at the top of the chart yet gained very little ground overall. After a moderate jump up over the last month, the last two and a half weeks have seen equity markets stuck in a range (blue …

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Markets Still Don’t Flop from the Top by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

An object in motion tends to remain in motion until acted on by an outside force.--Simplified version of Newton’s First Law My Grandma Seymour was a gracious woman. A Godly and wise woman. A woman of exceptional beauty. People often mistook her as my Mom’s sister – much to Mom’s chagrin. Above all, she was the quintessential southern matriarch. She ruled our family not so much from a position of authority (which she had) but rather from a position of repeated wisdom and gentleness - thus garnering and maintaining everyone’s …

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An Auspicious Anniversary – What’s Next? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

During the past few weeks, the media has been reporting loads of “How life has changed” reports commemorating the first anniversary of the initial pandemic lockdowns. Yesterday marked another key milestone in the markets: the one-year anniversary of the low tick in the fastest 30%+ crash in U.S. market history. So in a way, today marks the first anniversary of the start of the fastest recovery to a bull market in history. And it is a bull that rages on with the S&P 500 sitting a mere 1.1% below all-times …

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The Nasdaq Trails – Now What? by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

    This week, let’s look at something short and sweet. The Nasdaq has been the go-to for overachievement in recent decades. Yes, it has been an up and down ride, especially if you go all the back to the Dot.com bubble, but the last 12 years have been largely a one-way ride: The line presented in this chart illustrates the price of the Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) divided by the price of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). If the line is heading up, the QQQ is outperforming; if it’s going …

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The Game Stops: This Time It’s…Well — Like Every Other Time by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

    We were told in 1999, that “this time, it’s different”. We were told…the internet was changing everything. And we were told that valuing companies with no earnings and small or no revenues was going to last forever. That madness of crowd’s mindset drove a whole index up 10x in a few short years:   And then it came back down to earth. For anyone who’s been trading or investing, you know that wasn’t the end of the story — the NASDAQ has been a pretty good (!) place …

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January’s Broken Barometer by, D.R. Barton, Jr.

History is laden with strategies that worked for a time, then became ineffective, and were subsequently abandoned. Examples can be found in product development, marketing, and even comedy. But the easiest place to understand this phenomenon might be in military battlefield tactics. From the ancient times when bow, arrow, and horse were battleground standards, no real significant technological advances came to the military until gunpowder was first employed in the 14th century. For thousands of years, military tactics rather than technology were of paramount importance on the battlefield. One of …

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January’s “First Five Days” Indicator – It’s Not Useful Unless… by, D. R. Barton, Jr.

  Tell me not, in mournful numbers, Life is but an empty dream! For the soul is dead that slumbers, and things are not what they seem. Life is real! Life is earnest! And the grave is not its goal; Dust thou art; to dust returnest, Was not spoken of the soul. —A Psalm of Life by Henry Wadsworth Longfellow (emphasis added) Many market watchers and analysts are again looking at the well-known “First Five Days” indicator which was popularized by Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac. (For the record, I …

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2020: Record Money Raised for IPOs… Does 2021 See More of the Same? by, D.R. Barton, Jr.

  We’ll remember 2020 for a lot of things. It was the first year that my nuclear family didn’t get to travel to see my dad for Christmas. Instead, I did a 1,500+ mile double round-trip so I could bring him to see the grandkids. Despite us having a masked and socially distanced visit, all keeping an 8-foot distance from our patriarch, it did body, soul, and spirit a world of good. We can remember a year with the fastest 30% drop in the history of U.S. markets followed by …

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