Chuck Whitman

Is Inflation Going to Kill Your Savings?! Analyses of Commodities Markets By, Chuck Whitman

One of the biggest influences on inflation this year has been commodity-based inflation. Food, and energy in particular, but also industrial metals. Commodities are often key harbingers of shifts in economic growth and economic cycles, so we always want to listen to what commodities are saying for insights. Some major bellwethers in the commodity complex are starting to correct sharply enough that further breakdowns could portend a shift in the economic backdrop and perhaps even a temporary shift in the intermediate-term inflation outlook. This could be equity positive if it …

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Three Secrets to Create Investment Portfolios That Make Money in Any Economic Environment By, Chuck Whitman

One year ago, we began to pound the table that Modern Portfolio Theory was broken. The traditional 60% Long Equities/40% Long Fixed Income was setting up to cause losses that investors were unprepared for. In fact, people were incentivized to take on even greater risk by assuming larger equity allocations because fixed income interest rates were so low. One year later, our prediction has proved to be prescient. The model, which is diversified between 60% equities and 40% bonds, is getting killed. In fact, 2022 is one of the five …

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The ABC Secrets That Prevent Overtrading By, Chuck Whitman

Every trader falls into one of two camps: the overtrader category or the afraid-to-trade category. My 30 years of training traders has taught me that, no matter a trader’s successes or struggles, every trader falls within one of these camps. When it comes to differentiating an overtrader from those afraid to trade, the distinguishing factor of the latter camp is their difficulty in pulling the trigger. Fearful traders don’t go broke quickly; they die a slow death. It’s the death of paying their living and trading expenses, with no trading …

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Market Timing Update March 14, 2022 By, Chuck Whitman

The problem with the stock market is that breaks in the market come so fast. Before you blink, your portfolio is taking on large losses. Then you go into hope mode and wait to see if it comes back. But what if it doesn’t…Let’s look into the latest Market Timing Update from REED$TRADER. We got short-term model sell signals in the market on January 13, and a few days later we got an intermediate-term correction warning (This is the methodology we follow and that we teach through VTI, and that …

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What’s in a Name? By, Chuck Whitman

Several clients have contacted the VTI team with concerns about Mark Boucher. We appreciate your integrity in asking and we want to address the confusion. Mark co-teaches Reed$trader workshops with me for the Van Tharp Institute. Mark’s name is Mark Joseph Peterson Boucher. Mark lived in the San Francisco Bay area most of his life and currently resides in Bentonville, Arkansas. There is another Mark Boucher, specifically Mark Joseph Boucher, who is from Carlsbad, California, who was indicted on fraud charges recently. That Mark Boucher was an investment advisor for SCF Investment …

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Your Net Worth Is In Jeopardy! by Chuck Whitman

The gains that you have reaped in the last few years are vulnerable to the market taking them all back. You have been feeling great about your financial progress in the last few years. The memories of your portfolio getting smashed in the COVID Crash and your financial stress has finally been fading away. However, in 2022, it all comes back like one big adrenaline rush. You feel overwhelming fear as you realize you should have been more diligent in managing your risk. As a result, you oscillate between feeling …

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Using the Slow Reeds Trailing Stop to Let Your Profits Run By, Mark Boucher

Dave was an electrical engineer who hated Corporate America, loved numbers, and was drawn to trading because of its freedom. Dave has a trading system that is a mean reversion system in S&P’s. He likes this system because he gets validated quickly with quick and frequent wins. His system is correct 60% of the time, and when he is right, he makes 1x his risk. This system has an expectancy of .20. Dave thinks that he would be set if he could just increase his win rate points by 10%. …

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Using the Jeff Clark-VIX Indicator to Highlight Short-Term Market Bottoms By, Chuck Whitman and Mark Boucher

Significant internal and ancillary indicators can help a trader find strong odds and highly asymmetric times where the upside potential vastly outweighs the potential risk. One of those indicators we use, and teach, in our VTI/REED$TRADER Stock Market Timing Workshop, highlights possible short-term market lows. Today, let’s take a brief look at the Jeff Clark-VIX indicator. In 1993 the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) started releasing data on the VIX (Volatility Index). Shortly after that, astute trader Jeff Clark noticed that this Volatility Index on the S&P tended to pop …

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How to Sell the High—or Better By, Chuck Whitman

Last year, I wrote an article for the VTI Weekly Newsletter (April 8, 2020) entitled “Same Trades, Different Views. Improve Your Results with Positive Reversion”. In this article, I introduced the concept of the Excursion Ratio, which I now call the Capture Rate. The Capture Rate uses two different inputs. The first is Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE) which is the furthest the trade went in your favor during the life of your trade. The second input is the actual profit (or loss). When we take the profit and divide it …

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Letting Big Money Show You the Way to Big Profits By, Chuck Whitman

Last fall, Van and I held a workshop called, “How Big Money Trades.” The purpose of this workshop was to teach students how the market works and who are the participants. By understanding the participants and their objectives, we can use their behavior to find strong edges in the market that we can exploit in our trading. When is a trend a REAL trend? A REAL trend lasts several months, and prices rise by 50-200% or more. In “How Big Money Trades,” we talked about the role of the Commercial. …

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