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Monthly Top-Down Analysis: Forex and Futures Trend Scans By, Gabriel Grammatidis

Sit in on two higher-timeframe analyses as Gabriel Grammatidis examines recent Futures and Forex market action in the following videos. Monthly Futures Trend Scan (June 2022): The USD Index (DX) is at a critical level that may deliver a pattern failure signal leading to a sudden strength in the USD. For confirmation, I recommend waiting for the quarterly bar close end of June. The picture of other asset classes is quite diverse and a bit confusing still. While US equities might drop 20%, crude oil could break to new highs, …

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Scenario Planning in VUCA Times By, Ron WIlliam

Darwin’s law of evolution crystalizes the importance of learning how to adapt to a changing environment. History teaches us that even the very best winning performance streaks and most sophisticated trading systems eventually face a cycle of market headwinds. 2022 is a case in point, after a record bout of volatility, with the S&P500 triggering its largest peak-trough drawdown since the financial crisis of 2008. This served as a bellwether warning of change in market regime, characterized by VUCA times (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity)—periods marked by elevated volatility, coupled …

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The Tragedy of the Commons Meets Its Match in True Storytelling for Traders! By, Dr. Ken Long

Advice on how to build voluntary, high-performance, mutually supporting teams! During the Van Tharp Institute weekly webinar on June 13, 2022, the topic under discussion was the use of True Storytelling Circles as an effective technique in developing collaborative learning environments based on the principles of Safety, Trust, Truth and Opportunity. The general idea is that self-directed collaborative teams, who trust each other and are open to the creative insights of others (without judgment or criticism) are able to generate a number of extraordinary new opportunities. But before you reach those transformative opportunities, …

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Cause and Effect: Thinking Differently for Traders and Investors By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

When I was studying and training to get my degree in chemical engineering, the process of decision making was quite “yes or no”. Learn the rules of the physical world and then apply them. Learn how molecules combine and separate. Learn how mass and energy get transferred from place to place. Learn what is economical and what is not. And along the way, learn how to study hard and get a good passing grade—the higher the grade the better your job choices. However, once I was out of school and …

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Short Term Rally or More? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Just some quick thoughts today! The S&P 500 has managed what, at this stage, can be called a bear market rally of between 9% and 10%, including a 6.6% pop the last week of May. Many traders and investors are longing for the historically rapid push we saw after the March 2020 lows: An analyst’s note from Stephen Suttmeier, out of Bank of America, earlier this week gave three conditions for this rally to continue. It was a bold enough call for us to take a look at each one …

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Three Secrets to Create Investment Portfolios That Make Money in Any Economic Environment By, Chuck Whitman

One year ago, we began to pound the table that Modern Portfolio Theory was broken. The traditional 60% Long Equities/40% Long Fixed Income was setting up to cause losses that investors were unprepared for. In fact, people were incentivized to take on even greater risk by assuming larger equity allocations because fixed income interest rates were so low. One year later, our prediction has proved to be prescient. The model, which is diversified between 60% equities and 40% bonds, is getting killed. In fact, 2022 is one of the five …

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June 2022 Market Update Strong Bear Volatile Market Type By, RJ Hixson

Part I: The World Market Model Let’s take a look at the global situation (literally and figuratively) via Van’s World Market Model. If you remember April’s tables, May’s tables will seem pretty familiar. Asian equities are brown and red. All the US equity segments are brown. Europe and Africa are mostly brown and red. The lone geographic segment with all positive Market SQN scores again was the Americas (except for the US). Brazil really bucked the trend with a very strong score. So, unless you owned Central/South American companies, May …

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An S&P 500 Bear Market: How to Cope With All the Differing Opinions By, D.R. Barton, Jr.

The broader U.S. markets sold off earlier this week into bear market territory. I’ve been overwhelmed by how negative everyone has been about this decline – and not only the media. Just recently the American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear spread hit its worst level since 2009 with the bullish component at an amazing 30-year low (data back to 2017 shown below): There is so much competing data out there about where the market goes next; I thought we could all step back and look at data overload with a …

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The ABC Secrets That Prevent Overtrading By, Chuck Whitman

Every trader falls into one of two camps: the overtrader category or the afraid-to-trade category. My 30 years of training traders has taught me that, no matter a trader’s successes or struggles, every trader falls within one of these camps. When it comes to differentiating an overtrader from those afraid to trade, the distinguishing factor of the latter camp is their difficulty in pulling the trigger. Fearful traders don’t go broke quickly; they die a slow death. It’s the death of paying their living and trading expenses, with no trading …

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15 Elements of a Good Business Plan By, Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Editor’s Note: Dr. Van Tharp’s content is timeless and our goal is to continue to share his material with our readers. Today’s tip is material from a past article, “Business Planning, An Important Consideration for Traders”. Trading is a business. It’s a profession. It’s a skill to learn. Most businesses fail because they fail to plan. Business planning is the backbone of success. It shows you where you’re coming from and helps you to organize your thoughts and your objectives so you can create a plan to keep you trading …

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