Coronavirus

How My New Big Picture Outlook Changes Everything By, Gabriel Grammatidis

The Big Picture Outlook represents an important foundation for your investment and trading decisions. Van regularly points out that a very long-term analysis is critical for success trading the markets. The Big Picture Outlook impacts your trading strongly in terms of what asset classes to trade, which trading systems to employ, which trading instrument to use, and which holding periods best apply. What follows is my personal, new Big Picture Outlook and what it means for trading the markets in the remainder of the 2020s. My New Big Picture Outlook …

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Forecast: “Money Storm” Continues Its Downpour By, D.R. Barton, Jr.

Almost every week someone asks me whether or not this is the market top and every time I have a similar answer – until the money stops pouring in, none of the “lesser” issues matter very much. Technicals, sentiment, geopolitical issues, Covid news – all of that has had fleeting effects on the equity markets. Why? The power of using the narrative to inform our investing choices is as evident as ever. Today, we’re going to touch on the current narrative briefly and review a few charts that show what …

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Sector Bubble Watch Part II: Stock Watch + Other Risk Assets By, D.R. Barton, Jr.

Earlier this month, we talked about recent and potential future financial bubbles. There has been, what I’ve called, a “money storm” in the U.S. (and similarly in many other countries) coming from continued Federal Reserve monetary stimulus and from fiscal stimulus delivered by congress. Here’s a picture of the ongoing massive expansion of the Fed’s monetary injection: Note that the current amount of Fed Total Assets is $8.24 trillion—an incredible 9x times bigger than September 2008. We know that congress has provided three rounds of stimulus to combat the economic …

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Current and Coming Bursting Bubbles By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Greetings from Old Orchard Beach in Maine. I’m up in the lovely Pine Tree State with my wife visiting my brother-in-law and we decided to go to spend a few days in the lovely “old school” beach community and, of course, to eat lobster. Lobster rolls, whole lobsters, lobster salad—I’m not picky… I’ve shared before how expensive traveling has become in this post-COVID lockdown period, where pent-up demand has exploded for anything travel-related. Maine is no exception. Several months ago, I looked up prices to rent a car in anticipation …

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Inflation Concerns What Are Traders and Investors to Do? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

A month ago, I wrote about inflation concerns that had pushed the markets down to key support levels in an article entitled “Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line?” Here is the original “hold the line” chart: And now we have the answer to that question: The line held, coinciding directly with the reduction in inflation fears. Today I’m going to run you through a “chart-heavy” look at some inflationary forces and make the case that market participants are betting, for the near to intermediate-term, that …

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May 2021 Market Update Bull Normal Market Type By, Van K. Tharp, PhD

I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I’d like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers. However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to go through some sort of intellectual exercise …

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Special Update on Cryptoassets as of May 26, 2021 By, Van K. Tharp, PhD

“I’d rather own Bitcoin than Bonds.” Dalio, Ray. Ray Dalio: ‘I Have Some Bitcoin’. “CoinDesk Forum.” 24 May 2021. I’m doing a special update on cryptos because of the recent crash. My belief says we just had a mini-bear market within a major bull market and there is still great opportunity ahead in this market. Market Summary First, our Super Trader system stopped out of BTC on May 15th at $46,877.18 when it closed below our exit price of $49,090. I was a little stunned by that as I thought …

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Is Inflation Transitory and Can the S&P 500 Hold the Line? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

Many folks in the U.S. are returning to summer travel schedules. And like so, so many other things – the cost of travel has skyrocketed. In late May of 2019 (before COVID), my wife and I spent a week on the Gulf Coast of Florida for a little R&R. We rented a car at the Tampa airport, for a week, at a total cost of $150.82 (no additional insurances purchased). Earlier this week, I made the exact same reservation. I rented the same car class, at the same airport, on …

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What to Do With a Slow, Boring Market? By, D. R. Barton, Jr.

The S&P 500 has closed within 5% of its record high for 119 trading days. That's the sixth-longest streak since 1998, and it ranks up there with the "boring" periods of the last cycle (2013, 2014, 2017). – Callie Cox via Twitter Callie Cox’s post is telling – we have spent many months at the top of the chart yet gained very little ground overall. After a moderate jump up over the last month, the last two and a half weeks have seen equity markets stuck in a range (blue …

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March 2021 System Quality Number® Report The SQN® Report By, Van K. Tharp, PhD

There are numerous ETFs that track everything from countries, commodities, currencies, and stock market indices to individual market sectors. ETFs provide a wonderfully easy way to discover what’s happening in the world markets. I apply an index-based version of my System Quality Number® (SQN®) score to measure the relative performance of numerous markets in a world model. The Market SQN score uses the daily percent change for input over a 100-day period. Typically, a Market SQN score over 1.47 is strongly bullish, and a score below -0.7 is very weak. …

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