Scenario Planning: Succeeding in Today’s Chaotic Markets Through Smart Scenario Planning

Are you prepared or unprepared for the Roaring 20s?

Add a whole new box of tools for not only anticipating “unexpected” market conditions but also for profiting from them!

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Depending on your market, your trading may be bringing in record year results. Or your trading may be causing you great pain.

Think for a moment. We’ve had record moves for many years in just the first two quarters. Additionally, we have multiple markets seeming to make non-sensical divergences.

  • Major equity indexes were down 15%-30% - but treasuries were down by that much as well?
    Commodities indexes were up about 50% - but precious metals have been flat?
    US inflation is at a 40-year high but the USD index is at a 20-year high?

How can these realities coexist side by side? Further, who could have anticipated crazy market conditions like these? No, scratch that, wrong question. Reframe - How do you anticipate and excel in market conditions like these? Some traders do – and they do it on a recurring basis.

Some traders were in the right markets trading the right kind of systems in 2022—just as they are every year. Not because they were lucky, though. Rather, they looked ahead and prepared for these kinds of markets.

How?

Market wizards and top traders have processes that help position them for whatever kinds of markets show up. Processes that help them:

  • Prepare for possibilities that seem unlikely now by applying divergent thinking strategies
  • Avoid surprises by rejecting the biggest cause for being surprised – predicting.
  • Build a rich understanding of probable paths by triangulating three market analytical methods.
  • Scenario analysis.
  • Look ahead to the most likely price direction moves by applying a simple market-cycles framework.

Could you learn these skills? Could you develop a process for yourself so that every quarter of every year, you are ready to trade the markets in the best way?

On your own, that might take years of reading and research. But with an experienced guide, one who advises hedge funds for a living AND understands Tharp Think, you can learn the best practices and apply proven processes in a matter of days. Better yet, you could accelerate your learning through small group work using your new tools in real-time to prepare yourself for the rest of this year and for years to come.


The Details

Workshop Dates:

Saturday, July 16th
Tuesday, July 19th
Saturday, July 23rd
Tuesday, July 26th
Saturday, July 30th
Tuesday, August 2nd
Sunday, August 7th
Tuesday, August 9th

Time: 12 Noon – 2:00 PM EDT

End time is approximate and will vary depending on the progression of each class. Allow extra time each day. Click here to see when it is airing where you are!

Recordings: Recording access will be available for 30 days following the class.

One Student's Takeaway

Ron’s course was great! I had not heard of VUCA before but his full explanation helped me improve my understanding about the big picture of the markets. I also had not thought about combining together three sets of trade factors - macro, fundamental, and technical. This new “triad” approach has had a positive impact on my trading. —Lisa M.

The Workshop

Will markets in the 2020s will look like more the 1930s or 1990s? You don’t have to decide – prepare for both through a smart scenario planning process used by Market Wizards and top traders.

We know that spikes in volatility, coupled with heightened macro and event risk, often force traders to re-evaluate their preconditioned market (and mind) strategies.

In times like these, your response-ability is key to your success and often requires downloading a new mental map while modeling best practices.

This eight-part interactive workshop is designed to teach professional traders how to adapt to the new volatility regime, marked by VUCA conditions (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity).


Objective

Darwin’s law of evolution crystalizes the importance of learning how to adapt to a changing environment and Scenario Planning for Trading employs this same concept.

Strategist and educator, Ron William will teach you the importance of preparation vs. prediction, using a scenario planning framework to significantly enhance your trading approach, whether macro, fundamental and/or technical. Over the course of this series, students will benefit from case-study work and related educational resources to improve their practical application.


Curriculum Topics

1. The VUCA paradigm

  • What does volatility mean to you? Understand how your belief & values shape behavioral reactions in markets
  • Trade probabilities, not certainties
  • Volatility patterns and the importance to adapting to change
  • Types of event risk: Black Swans & Rhino
  • Harnessing the crisis-opportunity

2. Triad Approach

  • Developing a triad synergy of Macro, Fundamental & Technical Analysis
  • Useful & Non-useful beliefs
  • Trading approaches of Market Wizards: Bruce Kovner, Warren Buffet & Linda Rascke

3. Prediction Game

  • Tharp Insights
  • High probability environments
  • Alternatives: R-multiples, System thinking & Scenario Planning

4. Scenario Planning: An introductory overview

  • What is scenario planning?
  • Common misperceptions: Prediction, worst-case scenario, linear & binary thinking
  • Trading examples: What if scenarios, Risk-Reward, ABC (Base, Best, Risk Scenarios)
  • Why is scenario planning valuable?
  • How does scenario planning fit with macro, fundamental, and technical analysis?

5. The Principles of Scenario Thinking

  • The seven principles of scenario thinking
  • Principle 1: Get yourself a toolbox
  • Principle 2: Handle your brain with care
  • Principle 3: Think in dramas
  • Principle 4: Think in futures
  • Principle 5: Think in VUCA *VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity & Ambiguity)
  • Principle 6: Think in systems
  • Principle 7: Think in actors

6. Mental Scenario Planning

  • Top lessons from Market Wizards; Bruce Kovner, Warren Buffet & Linda Rascke
  • How scenario planning feeds into position sizing and systems thinking
  • The neuroscience of insightful, dynamic and resilient thinking

7. Market Cycle Framework

  • The Case for Cycles
  • Roadmap model
  • Adapting to changing market regimes
  • Multi-cycle analysis using trend averages (20, 50 & 200)

8. Practical Assessment Work

  • Interactive assignments and break-out sessions
  • Macro; Growth, Inflation & Geopolitics
  • Fundamental: Value investing, Disruptive opportunities
  • Technical Analysis: Market Types & Optimized strategies
  • Scenario Planning: Bringing it All Together

Ron William: An Experienced Guide

Ron-William-Headshot-Edited

Your instructor, Ron William, CFTe, is a market strategist and educator/mentor with more than 20 years of experience working for leading macro research and institutional firms, producing tactical research and trading strategies. He specializes in global, multi-asset, top-down framework, grounded in behavioral technical analysis.

Ron also applies a "market & mind" approach at IntensiChi, using the latest techniques in behavioral-risk models and neuroscience sourced from expert groups.

Ron's primary work, as part of his current institutional market advisory firm (RWA), acquired global industry recognition as the winner of “Best FX Research” in 2020.

Driven by high-integrity education, Ron serves as part of the education committee of the International Federation of Technical Analysts, Development Director at the Foundation of the Study of Cycles, Head of SAMT’s Geneva Chapter, and an honorary member of ESTA.


More From Your Instructor
Newsletter Article: Scenario Planning in VUCA TimesBy, Ron William


Guarantee

AT VTI, we guarantee that you will be delighted with this workshop. In fact, we will take all of the risks ourselves.

Attend day one (using either payment option) risk-free. If you are not convinced this workshop is right for you, you may ask for a full refund before the start of day two.

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Product Name Scenario Planning: Succeeding in Today’s Chaotic Markets Through Smart Scenario Planning
Workshops By Month July, August
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Guarantee

AT VTI, we guarantee that you will be delighted with this workshop. In fact, we will take all of the risks ourselves.

Attend day one (using either payment option) risk-free. If you are not convinced this workshop is right for you, you may ask for a full refund before the start of day two.