Oneness Awakening is THIS Weekend.
#885 April 11, 2018
  • Feature: Swing Trading for Position Traders and Day Traders, by Dr. Ken Long
  • Workshops: Van's Cornerstone, Peak Performance 101, May, July and October
  • Tips: A Perfectly Set Bear Trap?, by D.R. Barton, Jr.
  • FREE BOOK!: Trading Beyond the Matrix
$700 Discount Expires TODAY On Futures &
Next Week on Adaptive Swing Workshop

Future's discount expires
BONUS Free Coaching From Gabriel

As a bonus for the attendees, Gabriel will offer a 2-hour online group call approximately 6 weeks after the workshop to assess recent market conditions, see where everyone stands, answer questions, and offer support as needed.

He will also offer ongoing email support for another 3 months after the workshop to encourage and assist those traders with additional questions about trading the futures markets.

Learn From One Of Our Most Experienced Super Trader Graduates

Over the years, we have found that many traders (both novice and experienced alike) have talked themselves out of trading the futures markets. Most of the time, however, simple “fear of the unknown” will limit your ability to reach a higher level on your trading journey.

For instance, see if you agree with any statements like these about trading futures:

“I’m really afraid of opening gaps.”
“I would need a much larger trading account.”
“All of the contract specifications seem so complicated. I wouldn’t know where to start or how to trade those.”
“What if I had to take physical delivery? … Where would I put it?”

Unfortunately, fears like these prevent many traders from creating consistent profits and immense wealth by trading futures.

Every day, smart traders at every level use various futures contracts to achieve their goals in this global marketplace. Examples include the S&P 500 with the symbol ES, the Dow with YM, Gold with GC, Crude Oil with CL and Bitcoin with XBT.

Thanks to one of our most ambitious and accomplished Super Trader graduates, you can now have the opportunity to learn the EXACT way he trades these markets. He calls it, The Metrix Experience, blending the story from the movie The Matrix with Metrics and all of the needed numbers.

To learn more about this this workshop, scroll down to our workshop's section.

Feature Article

Swing Trading for Position Traders and Day Traders
by Dr. Ken Long
Ken Long photo
Ken explains how understanding the swing timeframe can be useful to almost any trader. Day traders and position traders can incorporate swing price movement information into their preferred holding period.
My general approach to swing trading begins with the context of three general time frames that I use to govern all my trading. The three time frames relate to how often I have to make decisions to be effective: monthly, swing trading and intraday. I think of these as three separate and distinct environments with some overlap between them whereby one timeframe can provide actionable information to the adjacent timeframe and provide an additional edge.

I base my long-term, monthly rebalancing strategies on my research into relative strength and momentum among broad asset classes. By studying relative strength, I believe I can position the portfolio to take advantage of longer-term momentum.

I think of swing trading as positions I expect to hold from approximately 2 to 10 days. In this amount of time, I believe the buying and selling action of market participants creates short term momentum in order to establish a new consensus fair value, when price behavior returns to normal. These opportunities appear at various times in the market and can be defined by price patterns, statistics, and trade location.

I view intraday trading as tactical, statistics-based trading that takes into account trade location, critical states, price confirmation and a realistic assessment of typical reward to risk ratios. This is a style of trading that requires self-discipline, impulse control and a healthy appreciation for the primacy of risk management.

I believe that each of these time periods has information value that can contribute an advantage to trading in the other time periods. For example, broad index ETFs that are experiencing a healthy relative strength advantage over other indices in the monthly systems can be framed as swing trades in the shorter time — when we observe a continuation of the outperformance in that shorter time frame. Similarly, intraday trades that close well can often earn enough money to support a low risk speculative overnight trade which may develop into a multi-day swing trade if the momentum carries over from day one. We call this approach swing trading one day at a time. These swing trades are funded with markets money earned from the initial successful intraday trade. This position sizing strategy protects our seed capital.

It’s fair to say then that I think of swing trading first as short-term, opportunistic, statistics-based trading which can be supplemented by information coming from the longer-term and shorter-term time frames.

It can work in the other direction as well, with some swing trades that continue to outperform the market becoming longer-term holdings because of their continued relative strength. Other swing trade positions can be added to intraday when they are outperforming the market in the same direction as the primary trade.

This diagram represents this idea visually:
Ken's Chart 1
Learning Swing Trading

I have developed and actively trade multiple systems and strategies for each of these three time frames. I teach these to other traders to improve my understanding of the markets and to sharpen my own thinking. In my teaching, I apply the principles of effective adult education based on current academic research. As a result, I’ve developed accelerated learning strategies for use in workshops that have four learning components and four categories of information.

First, let’s look a the components of learning before, during, and after the workshop:

  1. The workshop pre-work contains all of the formal system descriptions and definitions needed to understand the systems at a granular level. We provide that as early as a month ahead of time so that participants can come to the workshop prepared with their best questions after studying the material carefully.
  2. The workshop starts with confirmation briefings and back briefings to ensure that we have a common understanding of the system theories before we begin our detailed hands-on practice. After reviewing rules and doing test case studies in the large group we proceed to small group and individual hands-on practice with the trade simulator.
  3. The trade simulator is the hands-on practical experiential learning laboratory that allows us to manifest the rule sets through repetition and discussion. It’s in these hands-on, peer-assisted case studies that we really discover a deeper understanding of the systems and strategies.
  4. After the workshop, we provide a year’s worth of an online live chat room participation where workshop graduates continue to develop their understanding and application of the systems in real-time trading collaboratively with other experienced traders with a common frame of reference. The mutual support and insight developed in this ongoing live learning laboratory makes the systems your own in a way that suits your objectives and skills. In addition, traders have access to previous years of archived chat room transcripts.

Second, it’s useful to understand the four categories of information which we cover through the workshop structure. These are: systems, strategies, techniques and tips. Briefly, we define these as:

  • Systems: well-defined rule-based processes that can be traded mechanically according to an objective set of rules based on evidence, which have been back tested and forward traded.

  • Strategies: logically consistent frameworks of beliefs and indicators that support a variety of systems from a common frame of reference which allow a trader to apply a measured amount of discretion to sound systems. Taken together, systems and strategies offer a robust portfolio of ideas.

  • Techniques: common actions such as universal entries and exits, position sizing strategies, risk management, and market conditions that apply like building blocks to different systems and strategies. Good techniques help us refine and improve our routine trading actions.

  • Tips: good rules of thumb we have learned along the way while trading and doing research which help support our risk management and opportunity finding strategies. An example — when the weekly RSI(14) drops below 30, reverses, and crosses above 30, you should be especially alert to what may have just been an important intermediate-term market low. This may indicate a long-term long-side swing trading opportunity in the broad market. (Note: this is not trading advice. Do your own due diligence before you take any action.)

Summary

Swing trading is a reasonable approach to trading a manageable time frame which allows end of day traders and weekend traders to take advantage of persistent and repeating opportunities. Swing trading supports longer-term and shorter-term trading objectives. We think our package of educational and support materials are an effective way to rapidly develop your swing trading skills and we invite you to explore these areas with us.
$700 EARLY REGISTRATION DISCOUNT FOR THIS WORKSHOP
ENDS NEXT WEEK!
Learn From An Instructor Who Truly Cares
About Teaching You Everything He Knows
See video below.
In this 2 minute video, students discuss the benefits of taking Dr. Ken Long's upcoming Advanced Adaptive Swing Trading workshop this April.
Students Discuss Adaptive Swing

Trading Tip

A Perfectly Set Bear Trap?
by D. R. Barton, Jr.
D.R. Photo
Everything old is new again. The power of using the market narrative to inform our investing choices is as evident as ever.

Today, we’re going to touch on the subject of the market narrative briefly in order to add a twist. In addition, we’ll concentrate on a very bold money-making call on market direction.

Not One Market Narrative But Two

As a reminder, the market narrative is the overarching concept that is the primary market driver. Since the U.S. Presidential election sixteen months ago, the narrative has been the Trump growth agenda based on three pillars: lower taxes, less regulation, and more infrastructure spending. With the new tax reform bill signed into law, one of those legs was firmly set in place. The reduction in regulations is ongoing but enough changes have been made (largely through executive order) so we can say that two out of three are largely in place. The infrastructure plan looks like it is going to take some time to enact … so no leg three just yet.

We also see evidence of our “narrative in waiting” rearing its head from time-to-time. The Fed Great Unwind narrative will be the foundation of tightening monetary policy accompanied by rising interest rates – and that narrative will usher in a more challenging financial market environment.

Admittedly, our current blended narrative gives us two things to watch instead of just one. Which one is still in command? As we have seen with the “tariff troubles”, the Trump growth narrative continues to dominate. The market’s noticeable reaction to every Trump tweet and response out of China shows this dynamic fully. But if ultimately there’s to be more and deeper market trouble - it’s the emerging Fed unwind narrative that’s most likely to derail the global economic growth train.

In the midst of these transitioning narratives, I’d like to offer some market direction clarity. I believe the technical set-up on the charts is confirming the growth narrative in a big way and the markets may have just set the perfect Bear Trap.

What’s a Bear Trap, you might say? I’m glad you asked…

Lions and Tigers and Bears (Trapped), Oh My

There are a dedicated group of analysts who always see the market as a glass which is half-empty. These permanently bearish people (or permabears for short) have never met a pullback that they didn’t like (and that they didn’t predict).

While the market bottom of the Great Recession was made in March, 2009, permabears have been calling for a market top since April of 2009. Since then, they have “called the top” dozens or more times. Their influence has caused some people to miss out on part or all of one of the great bull market runs in history. Since early February, permabears have been as happy as a pig in slop — and they’ve been winning over more converts as well. But right now the market is threatening to catch them in the midst of their pessimistic exuberance.

In the simplest terms, a “bear trap” happens when the market seems to have reversed its long-term uptrend. The trap encourages people to jump out of long positions and even go short or buy put options. I like both of those types of trades — in the right sectors at the right time – but right now, the market may have set a textbook bear trap.

For stocks to rebound from intermediate lows and catch the bears unaware, we need two elements:

  1. Extreme bearish market sentiment and
  2. A technical foundation of support that holds a key level.

Well, both of those are now in place.

Jason Goepfert and his excellent compilation of data over at www.sentimentrader.com gives us this chart showing how extreme the bearish sentiment has become during this most recent down move:
DR Chart 1
Optimism has gone from all-time highs to multi-year lows in a matter of weeks. To that, add the strong technical support levels provided by the confluence of a double bottom and the 200 day moving average and you have the makings of a very nice trampoline indeed:
DR Chart 2
SQN Chart 3
A Bold Market Call

This combination of a bearish sentiment extreme and a technically logical reversal point should prove to be an ideal place to launch the next up leg for the market — however — one kind of risk remains a major factor. We’ve talked about headline risk and it is still a strong force in play — especially trade war headlines which can shoot the market hard and fast in either direction. So even if the bears do get caught offside here, you can expect a roller coaster ride of choppy ups and downs for the foreseeable future.

I always love to here thoughts and comments — and especially you additional insights(!) - please send them to drbarton “at” vantharp.com

Great trading and God bless you,
D.R. Barton, Jr.

Workshop Schedule

April 2018 - US
April is for Systems Traders
A Transformational Weekend With Van Tharp At Only $495
Call to register to attend this Saturday-Sunday
Participating in the Oneness Awakening Course is an extraordinary opportunity to benefit from some of the important journeys Dr. Tharp has taken to transform his life.

The course has become a fundamental tool in Dr. Tharp's mission to help his clients succeed. Don't miss a chance to learn more about how you can become more aware, positive, calm, centered, and successful. Plus, this is one of the few courses in which you can apply for Super Trader Program after completion.

Following this weekend training, traders can expect to naturally become more aware, positive, calm, and centered. By extension, they will also experience a shift in how they perceive the market. When a trader sees the market as it really is, rather than what they want to see, the act of trading becomes more relaxed and they become more confident and successful. Does this sound like the type of experience you want trading to be?

While this two-day course is not a technical course about trading, we have seen amazing results in the traders who experience the benefits of being more 'awake' and aware, calmer and more centered. Why? Because the person themselves are always the primary instrument, even before the technical skills of trading are engaged. Just like the athlete with impressive skills, traders can also utilize the phenomenon of tapping into their awareness to achieve premium results. Keen awareness, in turn, opens up new possibilities. Another great thing about the concepts and experiences in this course is that they have benefits that apply throughout students' lives, not just in their trading endeavors. Time and time again, traders tell us that their trading improved after taking this course, but also their personal lives as well! Plus, at $495 this event is a bargain!

A few seats remain for this weekend. Call us at 919-466-0043 and we can still get you registered!

Get your $700 Early Bird Discount
DISCOUNT ENDS TODAY!
Over the years, we have found that many traders (both novice and experienced alike) have talked themselves out of trading the futures markets. Most of the time, however, simple “fear of the unknown” will limit your ability to reach a higher level on your trading journey.

For instance, see if you agree with any statements like these about trading futures:

  • “I’m really afraid of opening gaps.”
  • “I would need a much larger trading account.”
  • “All of the contract specifications seem so complicated. I wouldn’t know where to start or how to trade those.”
  • “What if I had to take physical delivery? … Where would I put it?”

Unfortunately, fears like these prevent many traders from creating consistent profits and immense wealth by trading futures.

Every day, smart traders at every level use various futures contracts to achieve their goals in this global marketplace. Examples include the S&P 500 with the symbol ES, the Dow with YM, Gold with GC, Crude Oil with CL and Bitcoin with XBT.

Thanks to one of our most ambitious and accomplished Super Trader graduates, you can now have the opportunity to learn the EXACT way he trades these markets. He calls it, The Metrix Experience, blending the story from the movie The Matrix with Metrics and all of the needed numbers.

LIVE Futures Trading with Gabriel!

2-day follow-on workshop with Gabriel featuring LIVE trading of the futures markets in REAL-TIME!

Watch, listen, and learn as Gabriel shares with you the exact steps he takes to prepare for each trading day, to find opportunities, to evaluate the market action as it develops during the day, and to execute his systems.

Seating is extremely limited as this additional workshop will ONLY be open to those who have signed up to attend Gabriel’s Futures Trading workshop.

Take advantage today and attend this special, hands-on event for only $2,500 more, for a total investment of $5,795 with the early bird discount of $700.

You’ll learn in real-time the step-by-step processes Gabriel uses daily to trade his own account so that you can replicate the same processes in the futures markets and accelerate your trading confidence!

BONUS: Post-Workshop Instructor Support!

As a bonus for the attendees, Gabriel will conduct a 2-hour online group call approximately 6 weeks after the workshop to assess recent market conditions, see where everybody stands, answer questions, and offer support as needed.

In addition you will receive ongoing email support for another 3 months after the workshop to encourage you and assist those traders with additional questions about trading the futures markets.

Get your $700 Early Bird Discount
DISCOUNT ENDS NEXT WEEK !
Adaptive trading systems have rules and rule parameters that adjust to
market conditions and price conditions rather than remaining constant.
The Case For Adaptive Systems

Ken has been evolving his thinking about systems and strategies over a number of years from being strictly mechanical to being adaptive. While we have had generally favorable market conditions for mechanical swing systems in much of 2017, we now have market conditions evolving where it makes more sense to trade using adaptive rule sets. For a comparison, watch Ken’s video about the challenging market conditions for mechanical swing trading systems that existed in the second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016 in this 4 minute video,
Regression Lines — An Adaptive Framework

For years, Ken had been looking at regression lines to help him understand the broader trends in the market.
As have most traders, Ken had heard plenty about moving averages crossover based systems over the years. The idea had plenty of merit for finding shorter term opportunities within longer term trends. That is, when there are trends. A major problem for moving average crossover systems lies in the flat periods. Traders can get “chopped up” when the price moves up and down causing the averages to cross and then cross back again. Ken wondered if regression lines would work better. They did — but not good enough to have a great trading system yet.
After more thinking, a good amount of research, and testing various strategies, Ken found two additional inputs that added a lot of confidence for his entry and exit signals. Ken first paper traded the concept for a while and then started a prototype trading test with small positions of real money and intraday holding periods. As he traded and evolved the concepts, they gained more clarity and evolved into a framework for a kind of trading with several possible entries and several possible exits.

Recently, he started applying linear regression methods to individual indexes and to individual stock prices to see what he could find. He knew that a regression line gave the best linear description of a data set using its slope, and its R2 figure provided very helpful information. Today, he trades several variations of regression line crossovers (RLCO) on an intraday basis with a “production level” position sizing strategy. He is constantly finding what works and then extending it.

Don't worry if you don’t understand these terms or basic statistics—just know that regression lines can be very useful when applied in an appropriate trading system. In simpler language—they work!


May 2018 - US
June 2018 - US
July 2018 - US
August 2018 - US
September 2018 - US
October 2018 - US
November 2018 - US

Free Book

FREE Book!
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When you add the free book to an item already being shipped there is generally no extra shipping charge (of course, depending on your location).

Read Van’s Latest Book —
TRADING BEYOND THE MATRIX
The Red Pill for Traders and Investors

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS CLICK HERE!
Eleven traders tell their stories about transforming
their trading results and lives, in this 400 plus page book.

Below is a brief video on how powerful this book is to traders.

Cary, NC Workshop Information
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