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Tharp's Thoughts
Weekly Newsletter
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Feature: Van Tharp’s 2017 Road Trip,
by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
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Workshops: Workshop Dates Set for the rest of 2017, including London, England this October!
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Tips: Value vs. Growth Stocks — An Impressive Flip in Performance,
by D.R. Barton, Jr.
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NEW E-learning Course!
Forex Trading Systems: The Busted Breakout System
Click on the image below to watch a brief 1 minute video that hightlights this new course.
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Gabriel developed and refined his Busted Breakout system on the concept of trend-following while he was still enrolled in the Super Trader program. The system has a high win rate (about 65%) and it takes advantage of a price pattern that happens again and again in the charts — breakout failures. The main advantage of this is that it benefits from running for other peoples’ stops. This is a unique edge of the system making the trade break-even early on. Watching 15-minute charts for 4-6 hours a day and trading only the biggest, most liquid currency pairs, the system finds easily more than 150 trades per year. Gabriel is confident that someone with the
programming skills could turn the system into a well-performing automated trading system.
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Van Tharp’s 2017 Road Trip
by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
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I plan to take another trip around the US in my Tesla model S starting on July 21st and finishing on September 4th. Usually I write about these trips after I return but this year I thought it might be nice to tell you about the plans first and then write about my experiences sometime in September.
First, here is the planned trip.
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The plan takes us initially from Cary, NC to Green Bay, Wisconsin. From Green Bay, we go to Las Vegas and then to Santa Cruz, California. After Santa Cruz, I’ll be in Reno (to avoid the eclipse) and then drive up the west coast until I head east through Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin. After going through Michigan and on to Montreal, Canada, we’ll head back home to North Carolina. The only part of this trip I’m not looking forward to is the traffic in central California.
Three things I wanted to do on the trip are not possible because Tesla has not installed the supercharger stations they promised last year. The superchargers that Tesla has planned but not built yet are represented by the gray markers on the map. First, I had wanted to go into the Canadian Rockies via Vancouver. Actually, I can get to Vancouver now but I can’t come down through Montana because those chargers are still planned. Second, there is only one state that I have never been to and that’s North Dakota. As you can see from the map … Tesla is not too excited to put superchargers in that state as all of them are still just a plan. They claim they will open by the
end of 2017 — but last year they said they’d be open by the end of 2016. Oh, and you used to be able to go to Teslarati.com and see the superchargers under construction but for some reason, the Teslarati’s map now isn’t much better than the one at Tesla.com. Finally, I wanted to drive on I-40 all the way from NC to the West Coast, but that’s not possible as the superchargers in Arkansas along I-40 are still in the planning stages.
My wife has been after me for months to give me the exact plan for the trip. But I can’t really do it until about 30 days beforehand because I have no idea about which of the planned superchargers will be open. Earlier this year, for example, I drove to Myrtle Beach, SC and stayed about 4 days. I couldn’t drive the Tesla because the nearest supercharger to Myrtle Beach was about 120 miles away. That meant 240 miles for the round trip to the charger plus whatever I did in local driving plus the 5-10 miles that drains out of the battery capacity each night. It turns out that Tesla opened up a supercharger about five miles from where I stayed while I was there. I didn’t
know about that, however, until I returned home.
During this year’s cross country trip, I am doing a couple of new things. One of them is “sort-of” on my bucket list. As a Green Bay Packer stockholder, I always thought it would be fun to go to the stockholder meeting that they hold in Lambeau field each year. I think about 20,000 stockholders show up. This year, they are holding the meeting on July 24th so I decided to include that in the trip. In addition, the superchargers throughout Iowa and Nebraska are now open so we are going that route for the first time. After we go through Iowa and Nebraska, I think there are only 1 or 2 states that my wife has not been to … with North Dakota being one of
them.
I have a time share in Las Vegas and my wife and I like to go to shows so we’ll spend a week there. It makes for a nice break from days of driving. Unfortunately, this year’s Las Vegas stay is on the same dates as last year’s driving trip and I guess Vegas plans their acts by the time of year. The same shows are playing this year that were playing there last year.
This year I’m going again to a Robert Dilt’s NLP workshop at the University of Santa Cruz. The workshop is on leadership and I’m always interested in how Robert does NLP modeling. Thus, I’m spending another nine days at UC Santa Cruz plus two days in Silicon Valley interviewing some high tech CEOs. My wife usually flies home from Las Vegas as she doesn’t want to attend that workshop. After the workshop last year, she rejoined me for the rest of the trip but this year, an old friend, Bruce Du Vé, is joining me for the second half of the
trip which will start in San Francisco. Bruce and I drove around Ireland on a wonderful trip once and I’ve always wanted to return the favor. The US is a little bigger than Ireland and we’ll be doing a little travelling in Canada as well.
As many of you probably know, we have a full eclipse of the sun on August 21st and I’ll be right in the path of that. If you are an Indian yogi, then you probably want to witness the eclipse. Yogis tend to avoid the energy of the world so an eclipse will enhance that experience. If you live in the world — as most of us do — you probably don’t want to expose yourself to an eclipse — even though many people will be flocking to witness it. I have had at least four warnings that to do so is very dangerous.
My understanding is that Vedic Astrology calls this eclipse “the King Killer.” You do not want to be outside during this eclipse because there is a huge disruption of energy that could have a very negative impact upon you. Bruce and I will heed this warning and find a resort hotel to stay comfortably inside on August 21st. Perhaps it’s just superstition but the man who gave me the warnings is someone I respect a lot. Blaine Watson was the primary astrologer for the TM founder Maharishi Mahesh Yogi and I will quote his warning,
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. . . there is a total eclipse of the sun on Monday, August 21. This eclipse is rare in its totality and visibility. In Jyotish, we don't recommend travel or exposing one's self to this eclipse. This eclipse is called a king killer. There is a partial lunar eclipse August 7. Eclipses themselves are considered delicate transition points and the 2 weeks between these eclipses also offer some degree of vulnerability. Travel as little as possible and engage in risky activities as little as possible.
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After the eclipse, we plan to drive up the coast all the way to Seattle and then go west, with perhaps a one day stop in Yellowstone. I love driving in Montana. It’s an incredibly beautiful state and the freeway speed limit is 80 mph. Using the autopilot mode at 80 mph on curving mountain roads is a lot of fun.
This year is also different in that Bruce and I will go into Canada via Michigan. We’ll stop in Niagara Falls, Toronto, and perhaps drive as far as Montreal before going back into the states. We’ll then return to North Carolina doing our best to avoid crowded cities on the East Coast, especially New York and Washington DC. The planned route back is on the map.
While the location of the superchargers somewhat limit where I can drive, I also like to detour to see things off of the primary route. Last year was amazing as I saw Little Bighorn. I thought that was in South Dakota but it’s in Montana. And we also saw the Devil’s Tower in Wyoming which was another side trip. This year, we’ll probably take a trip into Yellowstone. You may not know this but Yellowstone is just a huge volcano. It erupts every 600,000 years and when it does, it’s usually an extinction event for most of North America. The last eruption occurred 640,000 years ago but my guess is that the next one won’t happen during my visit … and it if it does
erupt, it would probably ruin my trip no matter where I was in the US. There are just some things that we hope won’t happen in our lifetime but are pretty inevitable at some point. It’s more likely that many of our coastal cities will be under water (because of ice melting) during my lifetime than Yellowstone erupting, however, the next eruption is already overdue by 40,000 years. I wonder what the standard deviation of the eruptions is?
Telsa is now starting to produce the Model 3. I guess there are making about 30 this month and another 1500 in August before they ramp up production to several thousand cars a week later this year. I probably won’t see one on my trip, however, several hundred thousand Model 3s driving around in another year could possibly make this my last driving trip around the country. I have only had to wait for a supercharger twice ever driving around the country — and both of those times were in California. But with 500,000 Model 3s on the road, I could find myself waiting to find an open bay at every other charging station. I don’t mind shopping or eating during the 40 minutes
a charge takes but waiting an hour or so just for a charging bay to open adds a whole different dimension to the process. I’m hoping this isn’t my last trip around the US, but it could be.
In a couple of months, I’ll tell you what this trip was like.
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About the Author: Trading coach, and author, Dr. Van K. Tharp is widely recognized for his best-selling books and his outstanding Peak Performance Home Study program - a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp www.vantharp.com.
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August 5-7
Saturday-Monday
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August 8-9
Tuesday-Wednesday
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TIME SENSITIVE: Due to the extensive pre-work that will be distributed by Dr. Long to prepare for this class, it is highly recommended that students sign up as soon as possible after making the decision to attend. We want each student to have ample time to complete their work and be fully prepared before attending, so time in class will be the most beneficial for all.
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Dr. Ken Long begins his Day Trading Systems workshop by teaching you two day trading systems called the Frog and RLCO. Through his action-packed lectures students will gain an understanding of each system’s beliefs, rules, and variations.
Ken has been a long-time active trader and observer of the markets. He's noticed the consistent habit of prices for particular issues to move a certain amount. Much like a frog jumps when it hears a loud noise, prices tend to move a certain amount before they pause or move again. Different frogs are able to jump different distances, but each one tends to jump about the same distance as it did last time. Would it be possible to know about how far a stock’s price would move on any given day?
After attending this three-day workshop you qualify to stay on and live trade these same systems for the next two days alongside Ken. Plus attendees will receive follow up assistance in Ken's ongoing Chatroom for Traders.
Special Bonus: Free Membership in Powerful 'Chatroom' Plus Three Coaching Calls
Inspired by the powerful networking Ken has seen develop over the years at VTI, both through the Super Trader program and workshop attendees, he created and leads a group of traders with a shared interest in swing trading and intraday trading which he calls the Chatroom.
Ken and his chatroom members have been developing a daily community of practice to encourage a healthy and helpful environment to support each members' development as a trader.
And, as a way to maintain the spirit of cooperation experienced at the workshops after you are headed back home, you get free membership and access to this chatroom forum. And while this membership is free to workshop attendees, the value of this ongoing interaction and learning is likely as valuable the workshop itself.
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Attend Both August Workshops and Take an Extra $1,000 Off the Combo!
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Presented by Kim Andersson
Profit When Price Goes Nowhere: How to Successfully Trade Sideways Markets In Every Time Frame
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August 11-13
Friday-Sunday
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Announcing An Exclusive New Trading Workshop:
Sideways Market Strategies Profit When Price Goes Nowhere:
How to Successfully Trade Sideways Markets In Every Time Frame
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Kim Andersson covers a few objectives of the new Sideways Market Strategies course in this short video above.
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Did you realize that no matter what time frame you trade or what method you use to measure them, Sideways markets happen between 59% and 65% of the time!
And yet scant attention is given to this market type. When you encounter them the task of trading becomes much more challenging, stressing your systems and your psychology beyond your normal comfort zone. This new workshop is the antidote to this under appreciated, and least understood market type.
AN EXTRA SPECIAL BONUS FROM YOUR INSTRUCTOR
As an extra added bonus, Kim Andersson has agreed to provide additional support to all Sideways Market Strategies attendees for the remainder of 2017! This is no small offer. Your class will get four monthly calls (1 hour each), as well as ongoing email support for months after the workshop. She will offer her feedback and expert guidance for any sideways trading issues you may have for the rest of 2017. This way you know that you can be fully prepared to trade in Sideways conditions and get your follow up questions answered.
Plus! For The First Time Ever We Have An Exciting New Benefit to Offer Sideways Market Attendees: You will have access to a recording of the workshop during the period of follow-up coaching!
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Presented by Van Tharp
with co-presenter RJ Hixson
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September 15-17
Friday-Sunday
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NEW! Systems Thinking for Traders
Presented by Van Tharp
with co-presenter RJ Hixson
(more information coming soon)
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September 19-21
Tuesday-Thursday
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October 2017 LONDON, ENGLAND
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Presented by Van Tharp
with co-presenter RJ Hixson
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October 13-15
Friday-Sunday
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Presented by RJ Hixson
and Van Tharp
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October 17-19
Tuesday-Thursday
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October 21-23
Saturday-Monday
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Presented by Gabriel Grammatidis
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November 10-12
Friday-Sunday
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Presented by Gabriel Grammatidis
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November 13-14
Monday-Tuesday
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The Super Trader Program Price Increase Deadline Is 19 Days Away
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If you've ever wondered what it is like to be part of Van Tharp's Super Trader Program click on the short 4 minute video below to hear more about what our students have to say about their Super Trader journeys.
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I plan to continually look for new things to model to help people become more successful traders and investors. And what we are working on now is doing everything we can to make the Super Trader Program, which I think is already unique and the best in the world, even better...We have about 10 open slots in the Super Trader Program for 2017. We’d like to make sure that everyone who wants to join this year can get in at the current rate, which goes up after July 31st. Right now the price of the program is $52,500 for the first three years. It will go up to $60,000 for the first three years in August 2017. As a result, for those who qualify*, we are running a one month special on the
program.
Now through July 31, We Have The Following Specials:
- A lump sum one-time payment of $50,000 (less applicable discounts**) will save people $10,000 over the new price.
- Three installment payments six months apart for the current price of $52,500 (less applicable discounts**) will save people $7,500 over the new price. This payment option spreads out the cost over a year's time — which I don’t do normally.
*To apply you must have attended the Peak Performance 101 Workshop or the Oneness Awakening Workshop in order for Dr. Tharp to assess your openness to the program.
For more information about the program click here.
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Value vs. Growth Stocks — An Impressive Flip in Performance
by D.R. Barton, Jr.
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Traders and investors love when things play out “normally.” When markets react in ways as they have in the past, then subsequent movements are believed to be more predictable.
What does normal look like? When it comes to the four major U.S. stock indexes, there’s a distinct “pecking order.” At one end of the scale, we have the most volatile and hence the more risky indexes. The small cap stock Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq index are chock-full of tech stocks and hold down this end of the scale. When the stock market moves up, these two indexes move up the fastest and when the market turns down, these two drop the fastest. Therefore, the Russell and Nasdaq are characterized as “risk on” indexes.
At the other end of the scale, we have the Dow Jones Industrial index. It’s the least volatile and therefore seen as the least risky of the four big indexes. Since a select group of 30 of the highest quality stocks (also known as “Blue Chips”) make up the Dow, it traditionally moves up more slowly in bull markets and drops less quickly in bear runs. So the Dow is more of a “risk off” index.
In between these extremes we have the benchmark S&P 500 index. Made up of 500 of the largest companies, this is the “Goldilocks” of the indexes — not too hot, not too cold. Right in the middle.
For a long while now and right up until early June, things had been running pretty much “normally” in regards to the indexes. The only unusual thing was the Russell lagged in an overall strong up market. But this had been consistently so for many months and there was a commonly cited explanation for this phenomenon. The Nasdaq and the Russell are the two “go to” indexes for bull markets. When one is clearly stronger, typically money rotates into it and out of the weaker one — which is exactly what happened in the first half of 2017. Smart money flooded into the Nasdaq while it charged ahead and left its “risk on” Russell cousin in the dust.
We can see this along with the other traditional “risk on” behavior in this chart showing the percentage change for the big four indexes from early January 2017 to early June:
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After the “Tech Wreck” of June 6th, however, the indexes have been acting “abnormally.” The Nasdaq flipped with the Russell 2000 and the Dow has been outperforming the S&P 500. We’ll discuss why the Nasdaq/Russell 2000 flip was significant after you get a chance to look at the index chart from early June through early July —
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As I’ve written in recent columns, money rotating out of the Nasdaq and into the Russell 2000 is very significant. This signals that the market still likes “risk on” or that it continues to have an upward bias. If the market participants were defensive or heading into a “risk off” posture, the cash fleeing the Nasdaq would have gone into the Dow, propelling it to the top of the heap. If market participants were very concerned, then money from the Nasdaq would have moved into bonds – and completely out of stocks. As you can see on the chart above, however, bonds were actually down a bit during this period so this shows continued “risk on” behavior
by market participants.
Since the end of June, the index behavior has become quite chaotic — with one of the four indexes moving in a different direction than the other three on five out of seven trading days:
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Are We Back to “Normal?”
The only time all four indexes act in unison is when there is an outside catalyst. On Thursday July 6, we had some geopolitical unrest after North Korea launched another missile. Then on Friday July 7, we got a much better than expected monthly employment number which buoyed the market. Other than that, the indexes are having a difficult time reaching consensus.
So What?
This lack of index unanimity shows that there is uncertainty as we hang around all-time highs. But so far, all of the uncertainty has resolved itself to the upside, like we saw early Wednesday after Fed Chair Yellen’s Humphrey-Hawkins statement was released revealing “dovish” comments relating to the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet. So until further notice, the bulls still control the game.
Your thoughts and comments are always welcome — please send them to drbarton “at” vantharp.com
Great Trading,
D. R.
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About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured analyst on Fox Business' Varney & Co. TV show (catch him most Thursdays between 12:30 and 12:45), on Bloomberg Radio Taking Stock and MarketWatch's Money Life Show. He is also a frequent guest analyst on CNBC's Closing Bell, WTOP News Radio in Washington, D.C., and has been a guest on China Central Television - America and Canada's Business News Network. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com MarketWatch.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at "drbarton" at
"vantharp.com".
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NEW E-learning Course!
The Power of Position Sizing Strategies:
SQN Secrets Revealed
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If you've ever wanted to know more about creating effective Postion Sizing Strategies, we can now give you some powerful new tools to help you master this critical area of trading. Not only do you get a course with nearly 7 hours of instruction, you also get a FREE copy of Van's Definitive Guide to Postion Sizing Strategies Book and a set of spreadsheet tools to put your new knowledge to work. Read more about this exciting new course below to decide if it will help you with your trading goals.
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If you've ever wanted to know how to:
- Use a Monte Carlo simulator to understand what kind of R multiples your trading system could generate in the best case scenario, worst case scenario, and most likely range scenario,
- Use each trading system’s SQN score to help you craft a distinct position sizing strategy for each system,
- Develop position sizing strategies that help you reach your returns objectives while simultaneously avoiding your drawdown limits,
- Implement an effective Market’s Money mindset and position sizing strategy,
- Evaluate the probable effects on your equity from different position sizing strategies and variations of them.
Then you’ll want to learn the simple process and use the powerful tools found in our new Power of Position Sizing Strategies—SQN Secrets Revealed home study course.
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Watch this short 4 minute video to learn a little about what is included and hear what the impact has been on people who have gone through this course.
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FREE Book!
We pay for the book, you just pay for shipping.
Read Van’s Latest Book —
TRADING BEYOND THE MATRIX
The Red Pill for Traders and Investors
Eleven traders tell their stories about transforming
their trading results and lives, in this 400 plus page book.
Below is a brief video on how powerful this book is to traders.
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Cary, NC Workshop Information
For a list of nearby hotels for our Cary, North Carolina locations,
click here.
Book your flight arriving to the Raleigh-Durham International Airport (RDU).
When traveling to a three-day course, it's best to arrive the evening before.
To help determine your arrival and departure times, see:
Questions? Click Here to Ask Van...
CONTACT US
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This is a supplement to our subscription based newsletter, Tharp's Thoughts.
800-385-4486 * 919-466-0043 * Fax 919-466-0408
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