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  • Article: Market Type is Bear Quiet by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
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Feature ArticleDR

October 2015 Market Update:
Bear Quiet Market Type

by Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

Click here to resolve formatting problems

I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.

However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.

These monthly updates are in the first issue of Tharp's Thoughts each month. This allows us to get the closing month's data. These updates cover 1) the market type (first mentioned in the April 30, 2008 edition of Tharp's Thoughts), 2) the five week status on each of the major US stock market indices, 3) our four star inflation-deflation model plus John Williams' statistics, and 4) tracking the dollar. I will now report on the strongest and weakest areas of the overall market as a separate SQN™ Report. And that may come out twice a month if there are significant market charges.

Part I: The Big Picture

Over the last 100 days, the market went down 1.4% and there have been no new all-time high closes. In September, the market type was quite clear but in October, it has not been so clear. The 25 day Market SQN is Strong Bull Quiet whereas the 200 and 50 day Market SQNs are actually neutral. Furthermore, market volatility has gone from Volatile in early October to Normal starting October 6th to Quiet starting October 30th. In November, the market type could easily be Sideways Quiet again. Since the market only went down about 10% from peak to trough, the dropoff never developed into what people call an official bear market — down 20% or more. That still might happen but it seems much less likely at the moment.

Debt Clock

The State of the United States

Month Ending

National Debt

Federal Tax Revenue

Federal Spending

Trade Deficit

Debt Per Family

Unfunded Liabilities

Taxpayers

People supported by them

July 31 2012

$15.93 trillion

$2.364 trillion

$3.632 trillion

$810 billion

$684,405

 

 

 

Dec 30 2012

$16.42 trillion

$2.452 trillion

$3.540 trillion

$740.7 billion

$732,086

 

 

 

July 31, 2013

$16.89
Trillion

$2.73
trillion

$3.535 trillion

$703 billion

$748,458

Unfunded Liabilities

115.2 million

109.9M
95.4%

Dec 31, 2013

$17.27 trillion

$2,82 trillion

$3,480 trillion

$692 billion

$751,294

$127.2 trillion

115.0 million

108.5M
94.3%

Aug 31, 2014

$17.70 trillion

$2.97 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$706 billion

$757,297

$118.0
trillion

116.5 million

104.5M
90.0%

Dec 31, 2014

$18.04 trillion

$3.08 trillion

$3.57 trillion

$713.2 billion

$733,741

$92.5 trillion

117.3 million

104.4M
89.0%

Jul 31, 2015

$18.32 trillion

$3.15 trillion

$3.65 trillion

$723.4 billion

$753,212

$97.2 trillion

118.7 million

105.0M
88.4%

Aug 31, 2015

$18.37 trillion

$3.16 trillion

$3.66 trillion

$729.7 billion

$753,533

$97.5 trillion

118.9 million

104.9M 88.2%

Sep 30, 2015

$18.41 trillion

$3.18 trillion

$3.68 trillion

$726.6 billion

$800,855

$97.7 trillion

119.0 million

105M
88.2%

Oct 31, 2015

$18.43 trillion

$3.26 trillion

$3.70 trillion

$736.9
billion

$805,560

$98.8 trillion

119.2 million

105M
88.1%

In 11 months, usdebtclock.org says our official debt has gone up by $170 billion. That’s the highest it’s been since November 2014 so the government may not have been manipulating our unfunded debt amount lately.

Incidentally, the website says there are 119 million taxpayers. It also says there are 160.4 million people receiving government support, however, I have never understood how they determined that category as some of the sections look duplicated. To help solve that issue, I add together three groups that should overlap little if any - US Retirees (49.0 million) food stamp recipients (45.2 million) and disabled people drawing social security (10.8 million). Those three groups total 105 million – which is 88.1% of the number of taxpayers. I could have also included all of the government employees (23.7 million) as supported by taxpayers but government employees pay taxes too. Remember, however, that only about 10% of all taxpayers (just 11.9 million) pay most of the income tax revenue that the government collects.

Part II: The Current Stock Market Type Is Bear Quiet

My market type classification is not predictive but rather descriptive — rather than telling us what’s going to happen, it simply tells us what’s going on now.

I look at the Market SQN (System Quality Number) score for the 100 day period for the S&P 500 as my main indicator of market type but we also look at the Market SQN® score for 25, 50 and 200 days. Right now the 200-day and 50-day market types are both Sideways Quiet. The 25-day type is Strong Bull Quiet while the 100 days Market SQN score, our standard measurement, is Bear Quiet.

The graphs below include a chart of weekly bars for the S&P 500 over the last year, the Market SQN® score for 100 days, and the ATR percent volatility.

You can see from all three charts how the market went up in October and volatility more quiet.

Below is a chart of the recent weekly changes in the three major US Indices. The NASDAQ 100 is now up 10% for the year, while the S&P 500 is up 1% and the DOW 30 is down 1%.

Part III: Our Four Star Inflation-Deflation Model

In the simplest terms, we have inflation when “stuff” gets more expensive and we have deflation when “stuff” gets cheaper. There’s a correlation between markets and the inflation rate so monitoring inflation/deflation can help you understand some important aspects of the big-picture.

See the tracking table below with the current prices for each component and the total model score.


Date

CCI> DBC

XLB

Gold

XLF

Total Score

Dec ‘05

347.89

30.28

513

31.67

 

Dec ‘06

394.89

34.84

635.5

36.74

 

Dec ‘07

476.08

41.7

833.3

28.9

 

Dec ‘08

352.06

22.74

865

12.52

 

Dec ‘09

484.42

32.99

1,104.00

14.1

 

Dec ‘10

629.53

38.47

1,410.25

16

 

Dec ‘11

564.37

33.5

1,574.59

13

 

Dec ’12 CCI>DBC

556.08
27.79

37.54

1,564.80

16.39

1

Dec ‘13

25.66

46.22

1201.50

21.86

-1.5

Dec ‘14

18.45

48.59

1199.25

24.73

-3.0

Jan ‘15

17.40

47.69

1260.25

23.01

-3.0

Feb ‘15

18.17

51.49

1213.70

24.35

-1.0

Mar ’15

17.01

48.78

1187.00

24.11

-3.0

Apr ’15

18.29

50.42

1180.25

24.13

-1.5

May ‘15

17.71

50.61

1190.50

24.60

+0.5

Jun ’15

18.00

48.39

1176.00

24.38

-1.0

Jul ’15

15.73

45.94

1098.40

25.18

-2.5

Aug ’15

15.69

43.36

1135.00

23.42

-2.5

Sep ‘15

15.15

39.95

1114.00

22.66

-2.0

Oct ’15

15.20

45.28

1142.35

24.08

-1.5

Here are the individual model components and the price comparisons with prices two months back and six months back.


Month

DBC2

DBC6

XLB2

XLB6

Gold2

Gold6

XLF2

XLF6

Total Score

 

Lower

Lower

Higher

Lower

Higher

Lower

Higher

Lower

 

Oct 15

 

-1

 

 -1/2

 

-1/2

 

+1/2

-1.5

Notice that 13 out of the last 14 months have shown deflation. Fed officials are still talking about possibly raising interest rates in November or December 2015. I’m not sure that’s going to happen.

Also notice in the chart below that banks are still not lending money — which is a deflationary force. This chart, from the St. Louis Fed’s website, shows the M-1 money multiplier at about 0.74 which means banks are lending about 75% of the money supplied by the Fed. The money multiplier actually needs to be much higher than that, however, to really stimulate the economy (and bring back inflation). To put the figure in perspective, the money multiplier was over 3 back in the mid to late 1980s and in the years leading up to the global financial crisis, it was twice as high as it is now.



Click here to view a larger image

Part IV: Tracking the Dollar

The US Dollar Index is very choppy right now and is down about 3% from its August highs. The strong uptrend in USD that started mid-year 2014 definitely seems to have ended back in the spring. Since then, the dollar seems to be staying in a wide trading range from 98 to 93.

The dollar is in a sideways, slightly down and volatile choppy market. What’s next? I have no idea as this letter is not about prediction, just what is happening.


Click here to view a larger image

Conclusion

I find our current workshop situation interesting. Market sentiment in August was almost as low as it was in early 2009 and in late 2002. Ironically, we have several workshops that help people navigate these kinds of markets and we have only about ten people enrolled in each of them. Also, people are not buying trading/ investing books as they stay away from the market. So I would say that these are indicators of a strong market in the future. At the top of the bull market in early 2000, we had 71 people enrolled in a stock market workshop.

Second, I’m seeing a lot of very contradictory information in newsletters. Harry Dent, who forecasts a huge bear market ahead of us, recommends shorting IBM as one of his top stock picks. In contrast, Dan Farris writes a newsletter called “Extreme Value” and has IBM as one of his top long picks. To me, this kind of contradiction characterizes the climate out there.

In 2009, IBM was at $75 and today, Farris recommends an above average sized allocation for it and buying it at anywhere under $200. Right now, however, it’s basically a falling knife, currently at $140. If it finds support finally at $75, then that’s a lot of risk to take on (about a 50% drop). There must be better long term low-risk ideas around.

One thing that seems to be going on is that Asian countries are liquidating the US dollar right now. The China crisis is much more severe than most people think and that’s why they are selling off large amounts of their US Treasury holdings. A former market sleuth for the CIA, Jim Rickards, says that the Chinese are deliberately trying to weaken the US Dollar. Maybe but either way, they are selling off dollars right now as the yuan is under heavy selling pressure. Their primary solution? Sell US Treasuries and buy their own currency.


Click here to view a larger image

This is a US government chart on our official debt. When it reached two trillion dollars around 1985, I was horrified. But look what happened to the curve since that time and especially during the financial crisis from 2006-9 - the debt doubled from $9 trillion to $18 trillion +.

Right now there is an $800 billion gap between the $1.1 trillion the Treasury borrows to cover the budget gap and the roughly $300 billion overseas investors are buying. Traditional US investors are doing little to cover that gap so this means the Fed probably must buy more (i.e., print more money) to cover it. At some point this has to mean rising interest rates and a crashing stock market. But the question is when?

Until next month’s update, this is Van Tharp.

About the Author: Trading coach and author Van K. Tharp, Ph.D. is widely recognized for his best-selling books and outstanding Peak Performance Home Study Program—a highly regarded classic that is suitable for all levels of traders and investors. You can learn more about Van Tharp at www.vantharp.com. His new book, Trading Beyond The Matrix, is available now at matrix.vantharp.com.


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Trading Tip

DR

October 2015 System Quality Number® Report

by D. R. Barton, Jr.

Click here to resolve formatting problems


There are numerous ETFs that now track everything from countries, commodities, currencies and stock market indices to individual market sectors. ETFs provide a wonderfully easy way to discover what’s happening in the world markets. Consequently, I now apply a version of my System Quality Number® (SQN®) score to measure the relative performance of numerous markets in a world model.

The Market SQN score uses the daily percent change for input over a 100-day period. Typically, a Market SQN score over 1.47 is strongly bullish and a score below -0.7 is very weak. The following color codes help communicate the strengths and weaknesses of the ETFs in this report:

  Dark Green: ETFs with very strong Market SQN® scores > 1.47
  Light Green: ETFs with strong Market SQN scores (0.70 to 1.47).
  Yellow: ETFs with slightly positive Market SQN scores (0 to 0.70). These are Neutral/Sideways
  Brown: ETFs with slightly negative Market SQN scores (0 to -0.7).
  Red: Very weak ETFs that earn negative Market SQN scores (< -0.7).

These are basically the same ratings that we use for the directional component of the market type in my market update each month. The world market model spreadsheet report below contains many of the currently available ETFs; including a few select inverse funds, but excluding all leveraged funds. In short, the model covers the geographic world, the major asset classes, the equity market segments, the industrial sectors and the major currencies.

World Market Summary – Equities & Currencies

Each month, we look at the equities markets across the globe by segment, region and sector. This month is an improvement on last month. While the entire world is mostly a sea of red and brown, there is now some yellow and a little light green (debt instruments and the Japanese Yen). Last month I said there was a clear direction, but now the picture is unclear again.

This month all of the Americas markets and all of the US market segments are red or brown except for SPY and QQQ. This is interesting because the market type in the October Market Update shows so much improvement - but it is based upon just the S&P 500. Almost everything else is still very weak.

Everything in Asia is brown except for Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Thailand which are red. India and South Korea are the strongest countries in Asia but still, they are only brown. While this month looks stronger than last, it is still a global downturn.

Europe tells the same story. Everything is brown — but last month it was mostly red. Belgium and France seem to be the strongest countries but they are still brown.

The US sector view is all red and brown with a few yellow areas — meaning weak and not (at least not yet) impacted as hard by the downturn. The yellow sectors include Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Homebuilders, REITs, Technology, Utilities, Food and Beverage, Insurance, Software, Telecom, and Volatility. Metals and Mining, Oil and Gas Equipment, Oil and Gas Exploration, and Pharmaceuticals are red.

Six currencies are yellow, while one (the Yen vs Dollar) is actually light green. The yellow ones include the pound, the Euro, the Rupee, the Yen vs other currencies and the US Dollar.


Click here to view a larger image

Commodities, Real Estate, Debt, Top and Bottom Lists

The next chart shows real estate, debt instruments, commodities and the top and bottom ETFs for the past 100 days.


Click here to view a larger image

Commodities are still red and brown, but last month everything was red except silver. This month silver and global water are the strongest, but they are still brown. U.S. real estate is still yellow, while Chinese real estate is brown. So many Chinese invested in real estate and thought it could only go up which shows how bad the situation is in China.

Debt was mostly yellow last month but now it is mostly light green — especially longer term debt. Short term debt, corporate bonds, and inflation protected bonds are all yellow while junk bonds are red. Even though the Fed has said it could raise rates by the New Year, the market no longer expects higher interest rates — or it is still willing to flee to debt instruments despite the prospects for higher rates.

The top ranking ETFs in the database now show four ETFs that are dark green — mostly municipal bonds. As a category, municipal bonds dominate the top ETFs list.

The bottom list includes only one sector (compared with five ETFs last month) with a Market SQN score below -2.0. And only the bottom 11 are at or below negative 1.5. Last month, the whole list was less than -1.5.

Summary

Now let’s look at the summary table which measures the percentage of ETFs in each of the strength categories.

 

Date

Very
Bullish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Very
Bearish

2013

> 1.5

0.75 - 1.5

0 - 0.75

0 - -0.7

< - 0.7

Jan 31st,

27.1%

39.6%

20.7%

6.4%

4.7%

Feb 28th

10.3%

45.2%

24.4%

11.9%

7.5%

Mar 31st

39.2%

25.5%

19.1%

9.0%

6.4%

Apr 30th

49.1%

21.1%

14.8%

8.0%

6.2%

May 31st

29,2%

23.6%

19.9%

12.3%

14.2%

Jun 30th

2.1%

31.0%

23.2%

22.0%

20.9%

Jul 31st

8.2%

33.5%

29.0%

13.3%

15.2%

Aug 30th

1%

15%

46.4%

19.3%

17.5%

Sep 30th

1%

13.8%

42.3%

23.0%

19.1%

Nov 1st

13.3%

48.3%

21.8%

12.5%

3.3%

Dec 1st

14.6%

42.7%

24.2%

13.3%

4.3%

Dec 31st

19.3.%

45.5%

22.0%

11.3%

2.9%

2014

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 31st

8.0%

49.3%

20.7%

12.7%

7.6%

Feb 28th

18.9%

48.4%

18.1%

6.2%

6.8%

Mar 31st

4.9%

40.2%

38.8%

13.3%

3.1%

Apr 30th

11.1%

33.9%

40.2%

11.3%

1.8%

May 31st

12.5%

46.5%

27.7%

7.6%

6.0%

Jun 30th

53.4%

33.7%

14.2%

2.5%

0.8%

Aug 29th

20.3%

45.2%

22.8%

10.5%

5.3%

Sep 30th

6.6%

26.9%

30.2%

24.0%

18.5%

Oct 31st

2.9%

17.9%

38.8%

17.7%

26.3%

Nov 30th

3.1%

25.7%

25.1%

22.8%

27.9%

Dec 31st

3.7%

29.2%

24.8%

15.6%

31.2%

 2015

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 31st

7.2%

9.4%

35.1%

25.5%

27.3%

Feb 28th

6.4%

41.1%

34.5%

11.5%

10.9%

Mar 31st

2.3%

24.0%

46.4%

19.7%

12.9%

April 30th

1.6%

13.6%

69.4%

15.0%

5.7%

June 30th

1.4%

15.8%

48.5%

29.0%

10.7%

July 30th

0%

7.2%

49.7%

39.0%

9.4%

Aug 31st

0%

0.4%

7.6%

49.7%

42.3%

Sept 30th

0%

2.7%

7.6%

42.7%

39.8%

Oct 31st

1%

6.0%

19.5%

51.3%

22.2%

Two month back, 92% of the ETFs we track were either in bearish or very bearish territory. This month only 73.5% of the ETFs are in either of the bearish territories. Since we started compiling these scores, August and September were the first months ever where none of the issues were in strong bull territory. This month, we have four ETFs or about 1% in the Bull category. But that’s not enough to get optimistic. This is a bear market. Learn how to deal with bear markets and how to profit from them in the workshop we hold here next week. We give that workshop at most twice each year.

And remember —

Be careful to base your actions upon what is happening, not what you think might happen.

And right now that action is very obvious — down, down, down.

Until the November System Quality Number Report this is Van Tharp.

The markets always offer opportunities, but to capture those opportunities, you MUST know what you are doing. If you want to trade these markets, you need to approach them as a trader, not a long-term investor. We’d like to help you learn how to trade professionally because trying to navigate the markets without an education is hazardous to your wealth.

All the beliefs given in this update are my own. Though I find them useful, you may not. You can only trade your own beliefs about the markets.


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Position Sizing

Introduction to Position Sizing™ Strategies E-Learning Course

Perfect for auditory/visual learners who learn more effectively from an instructional format that is full of interactive features!

Only $149

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