Tharp's Thoughts Weekly Newsletter
: The Midas Touch Gold Model, by Florian Grummes
: $700 Discount Going On NOW on Day Trading Workshop!
: That’s One Resilient Bull Market by D.R. Barton
Q & A
: Effective Meditation Q and A
Coming in July
Ken Long Presents Day Trading Systems and Live Day Trading
Dr. Ken Long begins this workshop by teaching you two day trading systems, which he calls, the Frog and RLCO. Through his lectures you will gain an understanding of each of the systems’ interpretations of the market's movements, rules and variations.
Ken has been a long-time active trader and observer of the markets. He's noticed the consistent habit of prices for particular issues to move a certain amount. Much like a frog jumps when it hears a loud noise, prices tend to move a certain amount before they pause or move again. Different frogs are able to jump different distances, but each one tends to jump about the same distance as it did last time. Would it be possible to know about how far a stock’s price would move on any given day?
Learn how to trade these two great day trading systems, with Dr. Ken Long's expert guidance. After three action-packed days of instruction, you can opt to stay an additional two days and trade these simple-yet-profitable systems live! Students will see in real-time how these systems work in the markets, with an experienced and successful coach in the room.
The Midas Touch Gold Model -
26th of May 2015
by Florian Grummes
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As expected Gold managed to rally and exploded $50 higher within just five trading days since my last update. But with the same velocity all gains have been vaporized with two large down days. Another short-term top has been clearly established. Although this top at $1,232 has confirmed a series of higher highs it is now believed to be just another bear market trap due to the extremely weak price action. Overall the bears are still in control.
Any move below $1,170 should start a sharp sell off and might trigger the long expected final capitulation towards $1,035. If the bulls instead can defend the $1,180 level again, the sideways movement simply will continue and could lead to a bullish base building.
Meanwhile the Chinese are simply hoarding more and more Gold.....
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Midas Touch Gold Model Summary
Although Gold managed to rally more than $50 recently, my model never really turned bullish. It was last bullish in the middle of March at the last important low.
Today the model changed into the Sell/Bearish Mode. We have new sell signals on the Gold USD-Daily chart, Gold in Indian Rupee, Gold in Chinese Yuan as well as on the GDX Daily Chart. Seasonality remains on a sell signal until end of June. The heavy liquidation in the SPDR Gold Trust is giving a new sell signal too.
There’s been only one new positive signal since my last update which is the buy signal for the Gold/Silver Ratio on a weekly basis.
The latest CoT-Report for Gold is neutral while for Silver the CoT-Numbers have been terrible as the professionals are holding the highest short position since October 2010!
My model is pointing towards lower prices again.....
Gold Daily Chart
The breakout above $1,210 followed by a push up to $1,232 has been a bull-trap so far. But it is too early to assume that Gold is going to crash down towards $1,140 immediately.
The whole movement last week was the first time price met the 200MA ($1,222) since early February which in itself is a positive development. A failure at the first meeting with this important moving average is typical. The following reversion towards the 50MA ($1,189) is also typical. As long as Gold is consolidating in between these two moving averages the bullish case can not be neglected and the chance for a larger recovery remains.
So if Gold can hold the current level around $1,187 in the next couple of days and then move above $1,200, then another attack of the 200MA would be in the cards. Then if price was able to stay above the 200MA, the base Gold built between the 50MA and 200MA would help it continue its rise from the middle of March and could extend towards $1,240 or higher.
But of course today´s price action is not very encouraging for the bulls. On top of the list for reasons for the bearish case is the extremely negative CoT-Data for Silver. Also seasonality remains weak in the coming weeks and the Gold-miners are breaking down from a bearish wedge.
Overall this 4-year old bear market is not over yet - at least we are missing the clear confirmation for its end. This grinding sideways action certainly is not looking like a hungry new bull.
If you don't need to be active in this market I suggest you´d be better staying at the sidelines and avoid any short-term trading. This trend-less period can only cost you money and nerves.... I suggest investors wait for another chance to accumulate physical Gold below $1,150 until you hold 10-20% of your net-worth in physical Gold and Silver as insurance.
Long-Term Personal View
The return of the precious metals secular bull market is moving step by step closer and should lead to the final parabolic phase (which could start in summer 2015 or 2016 and last for 2-5 years or even longer).
Before this can start, however, Gold will need a final selloff down to $1,050-$980.
The long-term price target DowJones/Gold-Ratio remains around 1:1.
The long-term price target Gold/Silver-Ratio remains around 10:1 (for every ounce of gold there are 9 ounces of silver mined, historically the ratio was at 15:1 during the Roman Empire).
The long-term price target for Gold remains at US$5,000 to US$8,900 per ounce within the next 5-8 years.
Fundamentally, as soon as the current bear market is over, Gold should start the final 3rd phase of this long-term secular bull market. 1st stage saw the miners closing their hedge books, the 2nd stage continuously presented us news about institutions and central banks buying or repatriating gold. The coming 3rd and final parabolic stage will end in the distribution to small inexperienced new traders & investors who will be subject to blind greed and frenzied panic.
About the Author: Florian Grummes has been studying and trading the Gold market since 2003. His newsletter with updates on this model and gold is free and you can subscribe here. Parallel to his trading business he is also a very creative & successful composer, songwriter and music producer.
Notice from VTI
Update to the Super Trader Program
Last Week Dr. Tharp's announced a price increase coming soon for the Super Trader Program. And, you still have time to apply and be accepted into the program at the current rates!
There are two opportunities to attend qualifying workshops in order to be considered, before the price increase takes effect. One is the Oneness Awakening Workshop in just a few weeks and the other is Peak 101 in August.
Click here to read more and see the deadline for the old prices...
Combo Discounts available for all back-to-back workshops!
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That’s One Resilient Bull Market
by D. R. Barton, Jr.
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The endless jabber from bulls and bears about the age and health of the current bull market is a great source of fascination to me. I’ve heard certain voices which have been bearish since 2012 and others have never seen a pullback that they didn’t buy.
Here’s my own bottom line: despite the moderate economic data (both here in the U.S. and globally), the over-riding driver of these markets continues to be the central banks. Until that story changes and /or the broader indexes finally stray from the tippy-top of the page, I believe you have to remain a bull (if even a reluctant one) and buy the pullbacks.
The market hasn’t showed much momentum so far this year so I think breakout traders will have a tough go of it. What would change my mind? Deeper pullbacks (we’ll talk about this below) or central banks letting the money supply gas pedal come up off of the floor.
Revisiting the Nature of Our Current Bull Market
In my quest for data, I’ve found two pretty interesting pieces; one from our old friends Hirsch and Hirsch at the Stock Trader’s Almanac, and another from an up and coming blogger who runs some pretty good data pieces on a regular basis.
First for my data-mining friends, here’s an updated list from the Stock Trader’s Almanac that contains lots of data about both bull markets and the corrections that have happened during them:
The data are fairly self-explanatory once you know that all the numbers are calculated on a closing basis and a bear market has been defined as a 20% or more pullback.
These observations stand out for me:
||We’ve been up more than 1,300 points (and counting) since our last closing-basis correction.
||We actually saw a peak-to-trough (or intraday) 10% drop in May-June of 2012 and we hit 9.9% in October 2014.
||The current bull is among the longest and the strongest, but it is not the top in either category. So while the run-up since March of 2009 has been pretty amazing, we are not yet in “uncharted territory”. Before hitting any of the records from the last 70 years, this bull market still has a long way to go in terms of length, gains and time between corrections.
That data may not be all that new to many readers (I posted a similar table from the folks at Bespoke back in April) but the following chart really got my attention. It came by way of Michael Batnick whose site is called The Irrelevant Investor. He’s only been blogging a little more than a year, but I find he has some quite interesting insights. Here’s one such instance – he shows the average percent pullback from a new 52-week high in the S&P 500:
This chart shows another measure of just how strong our bull run has been. Once again, the data are calculated on a closing basis. The important thing to notice here is how shallow pullbacks from new 52-week highs have been, on average, versus all other decades that the S&P 500 has been in existence. Granted we’ve only been through a bit more than half of the current decade but this is another indicator of this bull market resilience.
Your views and comments are always welcome - please send them to drbarton “at” vantharp.com – I always enjoy hearing from you!
About the Author: A passion for the systematic approach to the markets and lifelong love of teaching and learning have propelled D.R. Barton, Jr. to the top of the investment and trading arena. He is a regularly featured analyst on Fox Business’ Varney & Co. TV show (catch him most Thursdays between 12:30 and 12:45), on Bloomberg Radio Taking Stock and MarketWatch’s Money Life Show. He is also a frequent guest analyst on CNBC’s Closing Bell, WTOP News Radio in Washington, D.C., and has been a guest on China Central Television — America and Canada’s Business News Network. His articles have appeared on SmartMoney.com MarketWatch.com and Financial Advisor magazine. You may contact D.R. at "drbarton" at "vantharp.com".
Q & A
A Perspective on Effective Meditation from VTI's Oneness Trainer
Q: I have difficulty dedicating enough time to effective meditation. Currently I am doing 15 minutes a day and it is not for lack of time—I am simply having trouble to find stillness for more than that and I believe I lack technical skills to help me. How can I meditate more effectively?
A: Many times when I'm talking to students, they seem to struggle with the concept of meditation. Throughout their lives, they may have built up a perception about what "real" meditation really is, and what it is not. Over and over, people say, "I've tried meditating/meditation....but I'm just not that good at it!" What I find fascinating about people constantly trying to get to that elusive meditative ideal is that...there's not really a single "right way" to meditate! In order to be "doing it right" meditation doesn't have to happen in a quiet room, with the eyes closed, shutting out the outside to go within. This is one way, but not the ONLY way! If you find the aforementioned method counterproductive, you can actually try another method, and look into experiencing EVERYTHING as a way of achieving a meditative state! I'm not suggesting that students should seek more incoming stimuli to make this happen. To the contrary, there are things that are already happening in our lives that we don't experience fully. Something as simple as the flavor, temperature, scent of a cup of coffee or tea may currently go unnoticed. The texture of a juicy piece of fruit, can be lost in the mindlessness of eating, you see? When we are experiencing something fully, we are no longer naming it. You're no longer comparing the experience to some other time in your life, when you had *the* best cup of coffee, or remembering back to the time when you went to the beach and had mangoes from the vendor there, and how good they were. That sensation of joy, peace, happiness, love, calm, emptiness....when you experience that, THAT is where you're trying to go to when you meditate. This sensation is not the same for all people, nor can we expect this sensation to have the same quality each time we experience it.
To be clear, this state of peace, joy, et al doesn't just happen when we are experiencing pleasant things. It also happens when we're fully experiencing so-called unpleasant things as well. It's simply that that one might be able to "catch" that feeling easier when they are aimed at fully experiencing something that is pleasant. Over time, as a person becomes open to experiencing, they will start fully experiencing all things more and more. The examples I've given deal with the natural world, because tangible experiences have been the easiest to experience this with for me, and it might be true for you as well. Over time, you may begin to notice that you can "catch" that feeling while you are in interactions with others, or in more subtle interactions with your environment. In these moments, you can be sure that you are in harmony within, and are experiencing equanimity. As you practice settling into these moments, into the sensation of experiencing, finding that place again becomes easier and easier. It is that perfection that comes before the words to describe whatever you are experiencing. The sensation before you can say: "This is..." and describe it. The sensation before you even say "This...". The sensation before you even think of the word "this".
Remember how I stated that it seems to be easier to get into this state of experiencing with the natural-world? One possibility is because these things start out fairly neutral, and lack any sort of experience attached to them that we perceive as negative. The experience is what it is, and we don't have many (or any) supporting "stories" around it, detracting from the experience. In the moment of experiencing, all that is left is peace, joy, etc...the Truth of the situation. If we expand this to all things in life, that is where we are trying to "go" in meditation...back to Truth. Thoughts, feelings, stories that are out of alignment with this space can be called "charged" thoughts, or just simply "charges".
From my perspective returning to Truth, and being able to experience it given any situation, opens doors to a huge shift in how we live life. For the sake of this article, I'm using the word Truth, and depending on your history, this term may make sense for you, too. It's simply a way to describe that place where everything is in alignment, there is equanimity, and naturally, the absence of charges. Others may have a different name for this, such as their Inner Guidance, their Higher Consciousness, The Divine, or the personal God that informs their life. Regardless of what you call this space within you, it is always there. For me, there really is no "opposite" to Truth per se, just things that are not yet aligned with Truth.
I became a Oneness Blessing giver in April 2012, and began receiving Oneness blessings regularly since that time on, which is how I met Van. While I had some experience with meditation prior to this, I know now that I was in the same boat as many of you...trying to "be good at it" and not getting anywhere. As a part of the process of participating in the Oneness Workshop, I was able to clear away major charges that were keeping Truth hidden. Receiving Oneness blessings, and then ultimately traveling to India to Oneness University in February 2014, lifted more and more charges, and has ultimately brought a profound perspective to my life. Returning to India again in February of this year has deepened my process of returning to Truth as well. This is not to say that all people should go to India, or even that that is the best way. What I do know is that when I went there, a lot of the "out of synch" stuff was cleaned up in a hurry and as a result, I got to look at what was left. Some of what is/was left was charges that I still had to look at (and continue have to look at!), but some of it was that "sweet spot" that I believe people are trying to find when they meditate. That space is waiting to be discovered (*rediscovered) within each of you. If you have questions about anything mentioned in this article, please feel free to email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org!
In addition to being a Oneness Trainer and co-teaching Oneness Workshops with Van, Rebecca Price is also our Customer Relations Specialist and likely the first person you'll speak with if you reach out to us! Come to our Oneness Workshop in June to learn so much more about how meditation practices can enhance your well-being!
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May 27, 2015 #735
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