Tharp's Thoughts Weekly Newsletter

  • Article: February 2015 Market Update: Bull Quiet by RJ Hixson for Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.
  • Tip: The Craftwork of Trading Part 2 by Ken Long
  • Report: January 2015 SQN® Report by RJ Hixson for Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

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RJ HixsonFebruary 2015 Market Update:
Bull Quiet


by RJ Hixson for Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.




Editors note: This is an abbreviated version written by RJ Hixson for Van while he is in Australia.

I always say that people do not trade the markets; they trade their beliefs about the markets. In that same way, I'd like to point out that these updates reflect my beliefs. If my beliefs and your beliefs are not the same, you may not find them useful. I find the market update information useful for my trading, so I do the work each month and am happy to share that information with my readers.

However, if your beliefs are not similar to mine, then this information may not be useful to you. Thus, if you are inclined to do some sort of intellectual exercise to prove one of my beliefs wrong, simply remember that everyone can usually find lots of evidence to support their beliefs and refute others. Just simply know that I admit that these are my beliefs and that your beliefs might be different.

These monthly updates are in the first issue of Tharp's Thoughts each month. This allows us to get the closing month's data. These updates cover 1) the market type (first mentioned in the April 30, 2008 edition of Tharp's Thoughts), 2) the five week status on each of the major US stock market indices, 3) our four star inflation-deflation model plus John Williams' statistics, and 4) tracking the dollar. I will now report on the strongest and weakest areas of the overall market as a separate SQN™ Report. And that may come out twice a month if there are significant market charges.


Part I: The Big Picture

US equities had spent the months of December and January going sideways in about a 5% range. By the end of January, the trend and volatility were close to entering a Bear Volatile market type. February, however, brought a rising S&P 500 which broke out of its range and set some new highs. Equities are also looking better in a number of other countries (See the SQN Report below).

Late in the month, the USD also broke out of a range and hit a slight new high at a level seen last about ten years ago. Gold spent much of the last month losing recently gained ground. Deflationary forces continue to be stronger than inflationary forces. The media is reporting on more signs of strength in the US economy and the Fed is talking publicly about when to start hiking rates.

Debt Clock

The State of the United States

Month Ending

National Debt

Federal Tax Revenue

Federal Spending

Trade Deficit

Debt Per Family

Unfunded Liabilities

Taxpayers

People supported by them

July 31 2012

$15.93 trillion

$2.364 trillion

$3.632 trillion

$810 billion

$684,405

 

 

 

Dec 30 2012

$16.42 trillion

$2.452 trillion

$3.540 trillion

$740.7 billion

$732,086

 

 

 

July 31, 2013

$16.89
Trillion

$2.73
trillion

$3.535 trillion

$703 billion

$748,458

Unfunded Liabilities

115.2 million

109.9
95.4%

Dec 31, 2013

$17.27 trillion

$2,82 trillion

$3,480 trillion

$692 billion

$751,294

$127.2 trillion

115.0 million

108.5M
94.3%

Aug 31, 2014

$17.70 trillion

$2.97 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$706 billion

$757,297

$118.0
trillion

116.5 million

104.5
90.0%

Sep 30, 2014

$17.77 trillion

$2.98 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$707 billion

$730,321

$116.3
trillion

116.7 million

104.9
90.0%

Oct 31, 2014

$17.9 trillion

$3.05 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$703.5 billion

$729,784

$115.4 trillion

116.9 million

105.1
89.9%

Nov 29, 2014

$18.0 trillion

$3.07 trillion

$3.55 trillion

$710.8 billion

$729,477

$115.7 trillion

117.1 million

105.1
89.7%

Dec 31, 2014

$18.04 trillion

$3.08 trillion

$3.57 trillion

$713.2 billion

$733,741

$92.5 trillion

117.3 million

104.4
89.0%

Jan 31, 2015

$18.10 trillion

$3.11 trillion

$3.59 trillion

$318.7 billion

$732,620

$94.1 trillion

117.5 million

105.7
90.0%

Feb 28, 2015

$18.14 trillion

$3.13 trillion

$3.60 trillion

$725.0 billion

$732,054

$95.3 trillion

117.7 million

 

Aug 31, 2014

$17.70 trillion

$2.97 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$706 billion

$757,297

$118.0
trillion

116.5 million

104.5
90.0%

Sep 30, 2014

$17.77 trillion

$2.98 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$707 billion

$730,321

$116.3
trillion

116.7 million

104.9
90.0%

Oct 31, 2014

$17.9 trillion

$3.05 trillion

$3.53 trillion

$703.5 billion

$729,784

$115.4 trillion

116.9 million

105.1
89.9%

Nov 29, 2014

$18.0 trillion

$3.07 trillion

$3.55 trillion

$710.8 billion

$729,477

$115.7 trillion

117.1 million

105.1
89.7%

Dec 31, 2014

$18.04 trillion

$3.08 trillion

$3.57 trillion

$713.2 billion

$733,741

$92.5 trillion

117.3 million

104.4
89.0%

Jan 31, 2015

$18.10 trillion

$3.11 trillion

$3.59 trillion

$318.7 billion

$732,620

$94.1 trillion

117.5 million

105.7
90.0%

Feb 28, 2015

$18.14 trillion

$3.13 trillion

$3.60 trillion

$725.0 billion

$732,054

$95.3 trillion

117.7 million

 

Van likes to highlight some of the numbers from the usdebtclock.org site each month to help keep everyone aware of the debt situation the US faces. It’s not just a US problem, however, as around the globe, numerous other countries face similar and even worse debt issues.

Of note in the last month, the unfunded liabilities have been creeping back up in the last three months now. What’s your reaction to “creeping back up” meaning an increase of about a trillion dollars per month?

Part II: The Current Stock Market Type Is Bull Quiet.

Last month, the Market SQN score was heading down steadily and was about to enter bear territory. Concurrently, the volatility chart showed an uptrend and an impending push into “volatile” territory. The short term trend had put the market on the verge of entering a Bear Volatile market type – in the literal or quantitative sense. In early February, however, the lines reversed and headed in opposite directions so that the month ended in a Bull Quiet market type.

As Van likes to point out, his market type classification is not predictive but rather descriptive – it tells us what’s going on now rather than what’s going to happen. The graphs below include a chart of weekly bars for the S&P 500 over the last year, the Market SQN® score for 100 days, and the percent volatility.

In addition to showing the 100 day period data, Van also measures the scores for additional periods for a fuller market picture. The Market SQN scores for the 200 day, 100 day, and 50 day periods are all in Bull. The 25 day was in the Bull range over the last week or so but just went into Neutral.

Below is a chart of the weekly changes in the three major US Indices. All three indices are up for 2015 now with the NASDAQ leading the pack.

Part III: Our Four Star Inflation-Deflation Model

In the simplest terms, inflation means that stuff gets more expensive, and deflation means that stuff gets cheaper. There’s a correlation between the inflation rate and market levels, so the inflation rate can help traders understand big-picture processes. Here are the model components and how the prices look at the end of February compared with two months back and six months back.

Month

DBC2

DBC6

XLB2

XLB6

Gold2

Gold6

XLF2

XLF6

Total Score

 

Lower

Lower

Higher

Higher

Higher

Lower

Lower

Higher

 

Jan 15

 

-1

 

 +1

 

-1/2

 

-1/2

-1.0

The total score of -1 means deflation is the dominant force but in February, it was less strong than it has been in the last six months when the scores have been -2 or lower. See from the tracking table below.

Date

CCI> DBC

XLB

Gold

XLF

Total Score

Dec ‘05

347.89

30.28

513

31.67

 

Dec ‘06

394.89

34.84

635.5

36.74

 

Dec ‘07

476.08

41.7

833.3

28.9

 

Dec ‘08

352.06

22.74

865

12.52

 

Dec ‘09

484.42

32.99

1,104.00

14.1

 

Dec ‘10

629.53

38.47

1,410.25

16

 

Dec ‘11

564.37

33.5

1,574.59

13

 

Dec ’12 CCI>DBC

556.08
27.79

37.54

1,564.80

16.39

1

Feb ‘14

26.13

47.08

1326.50

21.70

-3.0

Mar ‘14

26.12

47.28

1291.75

22.34

+0.5

Apr ‘14

26.41

47.67

1288.50

21.96

+0.0

May ‘14

26.03

49.08

1250.50

22.29

+0.0

June ‘14

26.58

49.64

1315.00

22.74

+2.0

Jul ‘14

25.32

48.65

1285.25

22.41

+1.0

Aug ‘14

25.03

50.53

1285.75

23.36

-2.0

Sep ‘14

23.22

49.59

1209.10

23.17

-2.0

Oct ‘14

22.31

48.40

1164.25

23.84

-2.5

Nov’ 14

20.42

49.16

1182.75

24.40

-2.5

Dec ‘14

18.45

48.59

1199.25

24.73

-3.0

Jan ‘15

17.40

47.69

1260.25

23.01

-3.0

Feb ‘15

18.17

51.49

1213.70

24.35

-1.0

Part IV: Tracking the Dollar

The U.S. Dollar has spent the last five weeks moving sideways. In the last two days of the month, however, a strong push up led the USD to breakout and close at its highest level since 2003. Here’s the daily chart for the last few months.

Van has mentioned several times that many FX traders have made a lot of money in the US dollar over the last six months. As you can see from the monthly bar chart below, the rise has been impressive.

This is Van’s prescription for growth in the US economy. Politicians please read.

1) Kill deficit spending immediately by stopping wars and spending on what we mistakenly call “defense.” We can’t afford to be the world peace keeper any more. We spend more than a trillion per year on “defense.”

2) Make sure no more deficit spending continues by passing a law calling for a re-election of new politicians any year the government cannot spend within their means. (I heard this first from Warren Buffet and borrowed it).

3) Right now the U.S. education system cannot compete with those of many other countries outside of the US except at the university level. And our best universities are filled with brilliant foreign students. Great, let’s accept the situation as it is and allow the brilliant foreign students who getting masters and Ph.D. degrees to immediately become U.S. citizens instead of forcing them to return to their own countries to use the skills we taught them abroad.

4) Give a $50,000 tax rebate to any US citizen getting a Ph.D. in the United States to help them pay for their education or their education loans.

5) Allow US companies to compete in the world in a big way by eliminating the tax on the foreign earnings of US citizen living abroad. Taxing foreign earnings of US citizens living in the US is fine, but not those who must live abroad to help our corporations grow and who must also pay foreign tax on their earnings. In addition, the new tax laws requiring foreign banks to report on the assets of US citizens is totally killing our ability to compete overseas. A US company abroad is now required to have almost 100% foreign employees because US employees cannot get bank accounts that are necessary to live.

6) Reduce Corporate Income tax from some of the highest levels in the world to competitive levels. Do this partially by not taxing foreign earnings from US corporations that are used to stimulate the economy. This would eliminate the US trade deficit fairly quickly. Right now the US government is saying that companies like Apple that channel their profits into Ireland (9% corporate tax vs 39% in the US) have to be stopped from avoiding US taxes. A much better prescription would be to tax them 10% on money brought back to the US.

7) I now own a Tesla model S, P85D. It has 691 hp. and still gets over 250 miles from a full battery charge. I charge the car in my garage for about 4 hours once each week. That charge comes from nuclear power. And in May I plan to drive the car around the US using Tesla’s free supercharging stations. And it won’t cost me anything to do that. Right now the government gives people a $7500 credit for something that could totally eliminate the US dependency on foreign oil and dramatically reduce air pollution. Tesla has actually released their patents to the rest of the world. The model S actually met two of the criteria that I wanted in a car (great power -- 0-60 in 3.1 seconds) and great gas mileage (infinite). Let’s encourage the US to help Tesla (an American company) with their mission. Obviously, this recommendation is more of a personal bias.

Van will be back in the country to write next month’s update.


About the Author: R.J. Hixson is a devoted husband and active father. At the Van Tharp Institute, he researches and develops new products and services that help traders trade better. He’s looking forward to joining Van in Sydney and hopes to take in an Sydney Opera House production and hop up to Manly Beach for a quick swim in the surf.  He can be contacted at “rj” at “vantharp.com”.


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Trading Tip

Van Tharp

The Craftwork of Trading Part 2

By Ken Long

If you missed Part 1, click here


The markets always offer opportunities, but to capture those opportunities, you MUST know what you are doing. If you want to trade these markets, you need to approach them as a trader, not a long-term investor. We’d like to help you learn how to trade professionally because trying to navigate the markets without an education is hazardous to your wealth.

All the beliefs given in this update are my own. Though I find them useful, you may not. You can only trade your own beliefs about the markets.

The journey to developing craft knowledge has been replayed in modern movies to the point where it has almost become cheap tripe—which is a shame. Even in the various iterations of the Karate Kid franchise, some fundamental wisdom arises from the journey of the beginner to master. The novice learns self-discipline by working hard on what seems like drudgery—simple, repetitive tiring task work with no apparent pay-off until he feels like he can't go any further and then demands access to more knowledge of the master. The novice becomes an apprentice when it is revealed that the discipline of the task work and the applied self-discipline has laid the groundwork for the mastery of higher level skills which build on the basic skills and movements that have now become second nature and can be performed without thinking.

The apprentice accepts that the path will lead to mastery and proceeds to accumulate the needed array of skills from the various disciplines of the craft. The journeyman achieves mastery in sets of skills and can be trusted to perform reliably in a growing set of discrete tasks and processes. The master brings all of the skills together, integrates them into seamless practice, and is prepared to add to the body of knowledge by having internalized the existing knowledge. The artist adds to the body of knowledge by returning to the center of it all and entering and fully experiencing the Moment with a creative, sticky mind and then emerges to describe the new insights offered by the world. And, so it goes through the continuous process of creation and propagation in the development of adaptive craft knowledge that follows and co-exists with a changing market.

This journey to self-mastery through service to a higher purpose, which is then internalized and incorporated into one's own identity is reflected across so many cultures and eras that there must be something fundamentally human about the experience. Knowing this with our head and feeling it in our heart to be true is good and helpful but even after we feel those feelings and know those facts, the work remains there, patiently waiting for us to do it. My father reminded me often that the coal won't shovel itself, taking me back to the days when my uncles would tell us about working in the steel mills and feeding the furnaces that made the steel.

One of our diligent chatroom members, who is well along the trading journey, recently did us all a service by compiling and editing a 30+ page glossary that documents the many concepts and themes we use to socialize our hands-on knowledge. It is a densely packed collection of insights and techniques that surround our adaptive trading process. It helps us make one of the most difficult tasks know to cognitive researchers: making tacit unconscious craft knowledge explicit and conscious.

As you travel your own path to trading mastery, you might enjoy the original martial arts movie that launched a thousand tributes: “The 36th Chamber of Shaolin” with the incomparable Gordon Liu. You might also enjoy the Japanese "10 Oxherding Pictures", a Zen parable of journey of self-mastery, discipline and freedom. The Chinese offer us the Journey to the West and the tale of Sun Wu Kong, the Monkey King who tamed his monkey-mind through service and realized his Buddha-nature.

About the Author: Dr. Ken Long retired from the Army as a Lieutenant Colonel and teaches at the U.S. Army Staff College. He is a proud father of three, a husband, teacher, student, martial artist and active trader. Ken also instructs dynamic trading workshops for the Van Tharp Institute. 

Ken's next workshop is just around the corner, Day Trading Systems in March. Watch this video to hear two testimonials from students of Ken Long.


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Report

January 2015 SQN® Report

by RJ Hixson for Van K. Tharp, Ph.D.

There are numerous ETFs that now track everything from countries, commodities, currencies and stock market indices to individual market sectors. ETFs provide a wonderfully easy way to discover what’s happening in the world markets. Consequently, I now apply a version of my System Quality Number® (SQN®) score to measure the relative performance of numerous markets in a world model.

The Market SQN score uses the daily percent change for input over a 100-day period. Typically, a Market SQN score over 1.47 is strongly bullish and a score below -0.7 is very weak. The following color codes help communicate the strengths and weaknesses of the ETFs in this report:

  Dark Green: ETFs with very strong SQN® 100 scores > 1.47)
  Light Green: ETFs with strong SQN 100 scores (0.70 to 1.47)
  Yellow: ETFs with slightly positive Market SQN scores (0 to 0.70). These are Neutral/Sideways
  Brown: ETFs with slightly negative Market SQN scores (0 to -0.7)
  Red: Very weak ETFs that earn negative Market SQN scores (< -0.7)

This is basically the same ratings that we use for the Market SQN Score. The world market model spreadsheet report below contains most currently available ETFs; including inverse funds, but excluding leveraged funds. In short, it covers the geographic world, the major asset classes, the equity market segments, the industrial sectors and the major currencies.

World Market Summary – Equities & Currencies

Each month, we look at the equities markets across the globe by segment, region and sector. Last month, Van said he saw a world market summary that looked worse than he ever remembered. This month, there’s been a change and you won’t see nearly as much red as last month – there’s a lot more variation in the colors which implies some variation in performance rather than consistent weakness.

Every US market segment has turned green with the exception of microcaps. The rest of the Americas’ markets have seen a slight improvement from red to brown except for Mexico which is still very weak and red.

Asia has only one country market that’s red now in Malaysia. India is the strongest equity market in the world right now. There are a total of three country markets in green and about half of the region’s markets are yellow – not great but definitely better than January.

Europe too has a lot more yellow and green markets this month. Three countries have turned green (Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands) while not a single one in the entire region was green last month. This month, not one country in Europe is red.

The sector view shows improvement too. Within the US market, five sectors are dark green (Biotech, Homebuilders, Pharma, REITs, and Aerospace) and only two are red (Metals/Mining and Oil & Gas Equipment).

The USD continues to dominate currencies as the only green colored currency at all. The Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and the Japanese Yen are notably weak but the weakest of all currencies currently is the Swedish Krona. The Swedish Krona also happens to have the lowest Market SQN score in the whole ETF database this month as well.

Click here for a larger version

Commodities, Real Estate, Debt, Top and Bottom Lists

The next chart shows real estate, debt instruments, commodities and the top and bottom ETFs for the past 100 days.

This month in commodities showed a few green items for the first time in a while. Timber, Agribusiness, and Water are all green while Gold and Silver are yellow – weak but positive. Everything else remains in negative Market SQN range with the weakest score coming from Oil.

Real Estate related ETFs are all positive with the strongest entry coming from US real estate.

Debt is still mostly green though this month, there are only light green rankings rather than several dark greens last month. Junk Debt is positive again this month which makes the entire category positive as well. Last month, long term Treasuries were very strong but that category has fallen off in the last few weeks.

The top ranking ETFs in the database exhibit a few themes this month – preferred, REITs, and consumer staples. Overall, the scores for the top 15 are a bit weaker than last month’s top 15 and no scores come in higher than the mid twos this month.

In the bottom list, oil and energy issues are probably unsurprising members of the weakest club this month.

Summary

Now let’s look at the summary table which measures the percentage of ETFs in each of the strength categories.

Date

Very Bullish

Bullish

Neutral

Bearish

Very Bearish

2013

> 1.5

0.75 - 1.5

0 - 0.75

0 - -0.7

< - 0.7

Jan 31st,

27.1%

39.6%

20.7%

6.4%

4.7%

Feb 28th

10.3%

45.2%

24.4%

11.9%

7.5%

Mar 31st

39.2%

25.5%

19.1%

9.0%

6.4%

Apr 30th

49.1%

21.1%

14.8%

8.0%

6.2%

May 31st

29,2%

23.6%

19.9%

12.3%

14.2%

Jun 30th

2.1%

31.0%

23.2%

22.0%

20.9%

Jul 31st

8.2%

33.5%

29.0%

13.3%

15.2%

Aug 30th

1%

15%

46.4%

19.3%

17.5%

Sep 30th

1%

13.8%

42.3%

23.0%

19.1%

Nov 1st

13.3%

48.3%

21.8%

12.5%

3.3%

Dec 1st

14.6%

42.7%

24.2%

13.3%

4.3%

Dec 31st

19.3.%

45.5%

22.0%

11.3%

2.9%

2014

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 31st

8.0%

49.3%

20.7%

12.7%

7.6%

Feb 28th

18.9%

48.4%

18.1%

6.2%

6.8%

Mar 31st

4.9%

40.2%

38.8%

13.3%

3.1%

Apr 30th

11.1%

33.9%

40.2%

11.3%

1.8%

May 31st 

12.5%

46.5%

27.7%

7.6%

6.0%

Jun 30th

53.4%

33.7%

14.2%

2.5%

0.8%

Aug 29th

20.3%

45.2%

22.8%

10.5%

5.3%

Sep 30th

6.6%

26.9%

30.2%

24.0%

18.5%

Oct 31st

2.9%

17.9%

38.8%

17.7%

26.3%

Nov 30th

3.1%

25.7%

25.1%

22.8%

27.9%

Dec 31st

3.7%

29.2%

24.8%

15.6%

31.2%

      2015

 

 

 

 

 

Jan 31st

7.2%

9.4%

35.1%

25.5%

27.3%

Feb 28th

6.4%

41.1%

34.5%

11.5%

10.9%

The average for the entire database has definitely shifted to higher Market SQN scores in the last two months. The bearish categories dropped by more than half in just one month and the bullish category was the big gainer this month.

While economic fundamentals are still terrible for the US and the rest of the world, the markets are looking better today than just one month ago. The US stock market and the US dollar remain the top performers in the world. Keep in mind Van’s sage advice:

Be careful to base your actions upon what IS
happening, not what you think might happen.


Van will be back to write the March SQN Report next month.



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March 04, 2015 #723

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Tharp Concepts Explained...

  • Trading Psychology

  • System Development

  • Risk and R-Multiples

  • Position Sizing

  • Expectancy

  • Business Planning

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The Position Sizing Game Version 4.0

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